Lakerholics

Opening night losses are a poor measuring stick for projecting how a team will play all year long but nothing throws shade on the bright sunshine of a new season like losing to your nemesis the exact same way as last season.

So while the 119–107 loss to the NBA Champion Denver Nuggets Tuesday night was just one game, it exposed lingering worries and concerns Rob Pelinka’s offseason success and the Summer of Austin Reaves had hidden. Specifically, none of the moves the Lakers made this offseason addressed how the Lakers were going to overcome the end-of-game advantages the Denver Nuggets superstars have over the Los Angeles Lakers superstars.

Call it a sobering dose of reality but the opening night loss to the Nuggets simply highlights the Lakers lack of go-to star who can close out games and a lockdown perimeter defender who can shut down opposing star scorers. While the Lakers have a deep and talented roster, they’re trying to have their cake and eat it too by winning another championship before LeBron James retires while simultaneously rebuilding the team for the future.

Here are three way-too-early big picture takes after losing the first game to the Nuggets why it’s likely the Lakers will need to make blockbuster moves at the trade deadline to legitimately compete for their 18th championship.

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1. Anthony Davis May Not Be Alpha Superstar

To say Anthony Davis’ second half performance in the Lakers loss to the Nuggets was disappointing is a major understatement after the preseason hype and build-up how AD was going to finally take the torch from LeBron.

Davis’ scoreless second half after scoring 17 points in the first half was a shocking failure both by the player and the Lakers’ coaching staff for not understanding what was needed and making the necessary adjustments. Nobody questions Anthony Davis has the physical ability and talent to take the torch from LeBron James and be the alpha superstar the Lakers need but the harsh reality may be AD lacks the requisite alpha mental makeup.

We’ll find out a lot more tonight about whether Anthony Davis can be the alpha superstar the Lakers need. Right now, it looks like both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal of the Suns will miss tonight’s game against the Lakers. This should be a good opportunity for the Lakers to wash away the bad taste from losing to the Nuggets on opening night by dominating the short-handed Phoenix Suns and evening their 2023–24 season record at 1–1.

Davis will be matched up tonight against Jusuf Nurkic, which should be a far easier challenge than facing the MVP Nikola Jokic. Davis and Ham have said the right things but the Lakers need to unleash Anthony Davis tonight.

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2. Lakers Need Go-To Star To Close Out Games

The big difference between the Los Angeles Lakers’ superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and the Denver Nuggets’ superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray is the later are both scorers who can close out games.

That was the formula the Nuggets used to pull off an amazing four-game sweep of the Lakers in last season’s conference finals, where just 24 points separated the two teams over the four games, and in last night’s opener. Part of the problem is 38-year old James no longer has the elite burst and athleticism of his youth or shooting stroke of a game closer and Davis is simply not a good enough playmaker to make teams pay for doubling him.

To win a championship, the Lakers need a go-to offensive star whom they can count on to make high percentage shots to close games and an elite perimeter defender to slow or shut down the opposing team’s best scorers. The Lakers could target a third superstar like Zach LaVine or a pair of proven veterans like Buddy Hield and Alex Caruso who would fill the team’s dual needs for a go-to offensive closer and shut down perimeter defender

It’s only one game with eighty-one more to come but the Lakers will likely be in the market for a lethal dead-eye shooter to close games and an elite point-of-attack defender to slow down the opposing teams’ top scorers.

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3. Lakers Commit To Load Managing LeBron

With the Lakers rallying to within 4 points with 8:48 left in the 4th quarter, Darvin Ham pulled LeBron James from the lineup and rested him until 6:04 left in the game. During that 2:44, the Nuggets lead ballooned to 12 points.

The purpose of the substitution was to limit LeBron James’ minutes to under 30 per game as part of the Lakers new ‘load management’ policy for soon -to-be 39-year old superstar, who ended up playing 29.0 minutes. James was a little miffed at the move as he had the team rallying and pulling him immediately changed the dynamic of the game. Ham probably should not have pulled LeBron at that point so expect adjustments.

The commitment to load manage James, however, seems to be set in stone. LeBron’s in maybe the best health he’s been since the 2020 championship run and is talking about continuing to play with both of his young sons. We’re likely to see judgement errors as Ham and LeBron work out exactly how the Lakers’ new load management policy should work for but limiting James’ minutes per game to under 30 for regular season is certainly smart.

The objective is to have a healthy, rested LeBron James ready-to-go on the first day of the playoffs. If that means limiting James’ minutes per game to under 30, then so be it. Lakers are committed to saving LeBron for playoffs.

Heading into training camp, the Lakers are going to have to figure out what they’re going to do to adjust to no longer having a speedy, pesky, point-of-attack defender like Dennis Schroder to slow down opposing point guards.

One option head coach Darvin Ham should consider is having the Lakers ‘switch everything’ on defense, which would make it simpler and easier for the team’s backcourt defenders to stay in front of whom they’re guarding. For a team like the Lakers who lack elite backcourt defenders with lateral speed and quickness to stay in front of today’s lightning quick point guards, ‘switching everything’ could be the key to playing championship defense.

‘Switching everything’ is not only a better fit for the Lakers backcourt personnel, it’s also a better fit for the drop coverage the team’s bigs play. The Lakers have been very vulnerable to penetrating guards’ floaters.
Switching allows the Lakers to avoid defenders lock-and-trailing opposing point guards over screens only to get put into jail and be unable to stop those guards from making easy floaters over our bigs’ drop coverage.

‘Switching everything’ has also evolved from just being the option teams without good point-of-attack defenders were forced to play to advanced multi-level switching defenses that mimic the best matchup zone defenses. While switching makes it easier for defenders to stay in front of their men, making a modern advanced switching defense work demands disciplined players on a string and a defensive captain with a high IQ to direct it all.

Let’s look at the pros and cons of ‘switching everything’, how ‘switching everything’ is a better fit for the drop coverage the Lakers bigs play, and why the Lakers should emulate the Warriors’ ‘switch everything’ defense.

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Pros and Cons of ‘Switching Everything’ on Defense

‘Switching everything’ has pros and cons like every strategy. At its simplest, it’s an option for weak point-of-attack defensive teams. At its most complex, it’s an advanced modern defense that elevates switching to new levels.

At its best, ‘switching everything’ can be like an advanced simulation of a match-up zone where all five defenders react in synchrony like puppets choreographed by an omniscient defensive guru pulling the right strings.
At worst, it makes it easy for opposing teams to isolate their best scorer on the other team’s weakest defender, even though iso basketball is usually inefficient and can take good teams out of what they’re best at doing.

That’s the thing about ‘switching everything.’ It lures teams into trying to do something that’s inherently inefficient and often not in their wheelhouse. Isolation basketball has not proven to be winning basketball in the NBA. But ‘switching everything’ is more than just an option for teams lacking point-of-attack defense. Teams like Golden State use scram and triple switches to turn simple switching into an advanced switching defense.

Smart switching defenses don’t just switch on ball screens. They try to switch off the ball at the same time they switch on ball to anticipate and counter the matchup or advantage the offense’s screen is trying to create.
‘Switching everything’ also does not literally mean ‘switch everything.’ There may be opponents, games, or situations where the better strategy might be to have Vanderbilt or Davis shut down an opposing scorer.

The pros of ‘switching everything’ on defense outweigh the cons, especially for a team like the Lakers that does not have elite point-of-attack defenders but does have the high IQ leaders on defense needed to make it work.

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‘Switching Everything’ Works Better with Drop Coverage

‘Switching everything’ works better with the drop coverage the Laker bigs play as it prevents opposing point guards from using screens to put trailing defenders in jail to get high percentage floaters against our retreating bigs.

Unless teams have a Jrue Holiday or Marcus Smart, it’s almost impossible to prevent the great ball-handling point guards in today’s league from beating their defenders 1-on-1 and getting into the paint to create havoc and score. While teams can try to direct the ball-handler by hedging or steal the ball by trapping, the simplest and smartest tactic for defending ball picks is to ‘switch everything’ to always keep a defender in front of the ball-handler.

The drop coverage the Lakers’ bigs play is vulnerable to opposing point guards using screens to get by their defender and into the paint where they keep the defender on their hip and make floaters over retreating centers. Without smaller, quicker point-of-attack defenders like Dennis Schroder, the Lakers need to rethink their strategy for dealing with perimeter picks and start ‘switching everything’ rather than trying to fight through screens.

‘Switching everything’ not only makes the jobs of the Lakers’ perimeter defenders easier but also simplifies the jobs of the team’s bigs, whose main duty in drop coverage is not to allow an opposing big to get behind him.
By making it harder for opposing point guards to get into the paint, ‘switch everything’ reduces the times Lakers’ bigs have to deal with penetrating guards getting into the paint and attacking drop coverage with floaters.

‘Switching everything’ on defense is a better fit for the drop coverage the Lakers’ bigs play because it prevents opposing point guards from using screens to get into the paint and use floaters to beat the drop coverage.

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Lakers Should Play Advanced ‘Switch Everything’ Defense

The Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, like the Warriors with Draymond Green, are one of the few NBA teams whose stars have the defensive IQ and chops to make an advanced switching defense work.

While the Lakers have traditionally preferred not to switch, the time has come for them to upgrade their defense and embrace a modern matchup driven advanced ‘switch everything’ defense like used by the Warriors.
Modern advanced switching defenses like the Golden State Warriors run are a mix of art and science that only works when there’s an elite floor general like Draymond Green or LeBron James to direct the defense.

One of the advantages the Lakers have over other legitimate contenders is they not only have one but two defensive superstars in LeBron James and Anthony Davis capable of playing Draymond Green’s defensive guru role. Since Darvin Ham is going to stagger James’ and Davis’ minutes so that one of his two superstars is on the court for all 48 minutes of every game, that means the Lakers will always have an elite defensive QB on the court.

We’ve already seen Darvin Ham and his coaching staff modernize the Lakers’ half-court offense dramatically with five-out sets that take better advantage of the team’s higher volume and percentage 3-point shooting. Look for Ham to do the same with the Lakers’ defense by adopting ‘switch everything’ as the team’s base defense with advanced scram and double and triple switches like Golden State uses to become the new D normal.

With LeBron James and Anthony Davis, two of the superstars with the greatest defensive BBIQ in the history of the game, the Lakers are uniquely positioned to deploy a modern sophisticated ‘switch everything’ defense.

Switching Jarred Vanderbilt to shooting guard could solve the Lakers’ need to find a game-changing role for him and major minutes for his defense and to improve their backcourt positional size and point-of-attack defense.

Right now, due to the heel injury that’s kept him out of action since the first preseason game, Vanderbilt has already fallen behind James, Davis, Prince, Hachimura, Wood, and Hayes in the tight battle for rare forward minutes. Meanwhile, the Lakers weakest position right now is probably shooting guard, where Austin Reaves is the starter with the potential backups being an inexperienced pair of 20-year olds in Max Christie and Maxwell Lewis.

The reality is the Lakers right now have too many experienced forwards and not enough experienced guards to build an ideal 10-man rotation. Moving Jarred Vanderbilt from forward to guard solves that problem.
The Lakers could then go with their expected starting lineup of Russell, Reaves, Prince, James, and Davis with Vincent, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Wood, and Hayes being the main backups for each of the five positions.

The Lakers have an opportunity by switching Vanderbilt from forward to guard not only to restore a vital role to a valuable player in danger of losing major minutes but also to improve their backcourt size and POA defense.

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Vanderbilt Is Already Playing Guard Defensively

Switching Jarred Vanderbilt from playing small forward or power forward to playing shooting guard would not be a major change for him defensively since the offensive players he usually defends are mostly guards or wings.

What the switch would do is move Vando from forward where his minutes and role are projected to be minimized to a new critical role backing up Austin Reaves at shooting guard and boosting backcourt size and defense.
While Vanderbilt will still face offensive challenges playing shooting guard, it’s important for the Lakers to find a way to keep his elite defense on the court for close to starter minutes. The way to do that is play him at guard.

The Lakers have made major moves to upgrade their offense that could ultimately cost them defensively, like swapping Schroder for Vincent or taking minutes from Vando and giving them to Hachimura and Wood.
Switching Vanderbilt to shooting guard would immediately improve the backcourt defense in the minutes when Austin Reaves is off the court as there’s no question Vando is a dramatically better defender than Christie.

Winning rotations are about having the most productive players on the court as much as possible. The Lakers need an experienced player to back up Austin Reaves and Jarred Vanderbilt needs a new role to embrace.

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Vando’s Size and Length Could Dominate Offensively

Moving Jarred Vanderbilt from backup forward to backup shooting guard behind Austin Reaves could be the move that unlocks Vando offensively by putting him in position to dominate guards with his size and athleticism.

While Vanderbilt will have to improve his ball handling and shooting, his elite size and athleticism playing as a guard could be a matchup nightmare for opposing teams to defend in the post and keep off the offensive glass.
Vando should continue to work on improving his three ball but moving him to the two could open up an entirely different kind of offensive game that would not only make him a better player but help the Lakers win games.

Now that the Lakers have signed Jarred Vanderbilt to a 4-year extension, they need to find a way to take better advantage of his elite defense while putting him in positions where he also will not be a liability offensively. Switching to shooting guard would give Vando a massive positional size advantage over his likely defenders, setting up opportunities for him to wear down and get smaller opposing scoring guards in foul trouble

Moving Jarred Vanderbilt to shooting guard could unlock his potential offensively while also improving backcourt positional size and point-of-attack defense, and rebalance the Lakers’ roster front and backcourt.

It was five meaningless games in an up-and-down preseason but Lakers fans have to be giddy about the glimpses they’ve seen of what could be the deepest, most talented team in the LeBron James-Anthony Davis era.

Now that the Lakers’ preseason is over except for Thursday’s final tuneup game against the Suns, it’s time to review what we’ve seen and figure out what it means for the team as they prepare for next Tuesday’s road opener. Right now, the odds makers have the Lakers ranked fifth, with far longer odds to win the 2024 NBA championship than the Celtics, Bucks, Nuggets, and Suns, who were the four teams included in the league’s top tier.

While it’s a ridiculously small sample size, Lakers fans should be excited and encouraged about what they saw from this deep and talented roster during the five preseason games. It’s LeBron and AD’s best Lakers team.

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1. Anthony Davis is ready to take the torch from LeBron James

Davis has looked dominant in preseason and should be a prime candidate for both the MVP and DPOY awards, averaging 14.3 points, 6.3 boards, 2.5 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.3 blocks in just 17.0 minutes per preseason game.

Assuming 36 minutes per game, AD’s numbers would be 30.3 points, 12.5 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.7 steals, and 2.8 blocks per game, increases over last year’s 25.9 points, 12.6 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals, and 2.0 blocks.
Davis has also worked hard to fix his broken jumper and is shooting 54.5% from the field, 50.0% from deep, and 88.9% from the line in preseason versus last year’s 56.3% from field, 25.7% from deep, and 78.4% from line.

The biggest takeaway from this preseason is that Anthony Davis is finally poised to take the torch from LeBron James as the team’s alpha superstar and franchise face who takes the most shots and scores the most points.

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2. Lakers have finally fixed their 3-point shooting problem

This preseason, the Lakers appear to have upgraded their 3-point shooting from the last season. In the five games they’ve played, they’ve made 13.4 threes out of 37.4 attempts per game for 12th best 35.8% from deep.

While the sample size is very small, there’s been no question the Lakers have improved their 3-point shooting. Last season, they made just 10.8 threes out of 31.2 attempts per game, good for 25th best 34.6% from deep.
Sinking 2.6 more threes per game would generate 7.8 more points per game this season over last season, which would be a major improvement that could easily catapult the team up the league’s power rankings.

Just look at the Lakers’ individual players’ 3-point shooting statistics for the preseason. Seven of their projected 10-man rotation are shooting over 35% from deep and five over 45%. The Lakers finally have enough shooting.

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3. Lakers may be deepest and most versatile team in league

While Darvin Ham has not made a formal announcement, Taurean Prince appears to have won the fifth starter job alongside guards D’Angelo Russell, and Austin Reaves and superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Right now, Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Christian Wood, and Jaxson Hayes appear to have the best chance to make the final 10-man rotation with both Max Christie and Cam Reddish still in the mix. The Lakers roster essentially consists of twelve legitimate rotation players and last summer’s first and second round draft picks. There may not be another NBA team that’s as deep and versatile as this Lakers team.

The Lakers have showcased their depth all preseason, competing even when missing multiple stars or starters. Last night, they outplayed Giannis, Dame, and the Bucks without James, Reaves, Vincent, or Vanderbilt.

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4. Lakers may be championship favorites by time playoffs start

Right now, the odds makers have the Lakers as the fifth favorite to win the NBA championship, which is probably realistic. On paper, it’s hard not to rank the Bucks, Celtics, Nuggets, and Suns above the Lakers. For now.

But by the end of the season, the Lakers could easily be on par or better than the four current top tier teams because they have a team full of young veterans just approaching or entering their prime ready to take a big leap. Darvin Ham and his coaching player development oriented coaching staff helped Malik Monk, Dennis Schroder, and Lonnie Walker IV resurrect their games and redeem their brand values under the bright lights of L.A.

Look at what the Lakers have done with Hachimura and Vanderbilt. Hayes. Wood, and Reddish could be next. The Lakers could easily be as good as or better than the four teams above them by the time the NBA playoffs start.

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5. Lakers could end up not making any moves at trade deadline

Right now, the Lakers 10-man rotation of Russell, Reaves, Prince, James, and Davis backed up by Vincent, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Wood, and Hayes is so deep the Lakers may end up not wanting or needing to make a trade.

The one thing that could swing the Lakers decision makers to not make a move at the trade deadline would be the team playing at a championship level the first half of the season with Russell and Hachimura playing well. While the Lakers have multiple tradable players on team friendly contracts, they would likely need Russell’s and/or Hachimura’s salaries for matching purposes in any deal made to upgrade the roster at the trade deadline.

There’s definitely a scenario where the Lakers as a team and D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura as key rotation players play so well the team decides to stand pat and not make any major moves at the deadline.

Darvin Ham’s new five-out sets will dramatically change how the Los Angeles Lakers play by making it easier to get the ball to Anthony Davis sooner, more often, and where he’ll have space and freedom to attack.

Strategically, five-out sets are positionless basketball since all five players begin behind the 3-point line, which makes it the perfect offensive scheme to accommodate Anthony Davis’ desire to play fewer minutes at center. Tactically, five-out sets give a trailing Anthony Davis the ball where he’s flanked by four 3-point shooters and has options to take a wide open three or beat his man 1-on-1 for an easy layup or dunk or drive-and-dish three.

Better shooters and five-out sets should give the Lakers a chance to reduce the negative 20–25 ppg 3-point shooting differential that forces them to dominate made-free-throws and points-in-the-paint to keep games close.
The Lakers will still run four-out sets when Jaxson Hayes plays beside Anthony Davis but five-out sets will require a stretch big, which is why there is a good chance Christian Wood could emerge as the fifth starter.

While it’s too early to judge the impact of new five-out sets, the Lakers are taking and making a lot more 3-point shots so far this preseason but also suffering a troubling decline in made free throws and points in the paint. The challenge for the Lakers in switching from four-out to five-out sets will be to reduce their negative 3-point scoring differential without impacting their positive made-free-throws and points-in-the-paint differentials.

Let’s listen first to Darvin Ham explain why he wants the Lakers to switch to five-out sets and then look at how the team’s new five-out sets unleash the beast in Anthony Davis and are the perfect fit for the rest of the team.

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Why Darvin Ham Wants to Switch to Five-Out Sets

Darvin Ham is switching from four-out to five-out sets to take advantage of the Lakers’ improved 3-point shooting and accommodate Anthony Davis’ desire to play more power forward and less center during regular season.

Last season, the Lakers played four-out sets with four shooters behind the 3-point line and the fifth player in the dunker spot under the rim because they didn’t have enough proven good 3-point shooters to play five-out sets.
Four-out sets meant that Davis would either get the ball via a pick-and-roll play in the paint or by isolating him on the wing, where he would often be double-teamed. There were times teams could make AD disappear.

By switching to five-out sets, the Lakers can easily get the ball to Anthony Davis earlier in the shot clock, more often during the game, and in a spot where he can deliver the maximum damage as a scorer and playmaker.
The examples shown in the above video show how the five-out sets make it easier to get the ball to Davis with time, space, and freedom to attack the defense and how difficult it is to double him with shooters on the wings.

Darvin Ham has said he would like Anthony Davis to take three 3-point shots per half or six per game going forward. So far this preseason, AD has taken six threes and made three in 26.7 minutes in two preseason games. Last season, AD averaged 17.2 shot attempts and took 1.3 threes per game. While he’s only played limited minutes in two preseason games, Davis is on pace to increase his shot attempts to 22.6 and his threes to 8.0 per game.

Darvin Ham wants to run five-out sets because they are the quickest and easiest way to give Anthony Davis the increased floor spacing, freedom, touches, and shots he needs to become the very best version of himself.

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How Five-Out Sets Unleash Beast in Anthony Davis

Darvin Ham and the Los Angeles Lakers smartly avoided the controversy over whether Anthony Davis plays center or power forward by adopting new five-out half court offensive sets that are essentially positionless.

Once Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office agreed to extend Anthony Davis to be the face of the franchise, Darvin Ham was given responsibility to upgrade the team’s offense to unleash the beast in Anthony Davis.
The result is a positionless five-out set where the AD has the ball at the top of the key, flanked left and right by 3-point shooters on the wing and corner that makes it easier to get AD the ball sooner and more often than before.

We’ve already seen in the two preseason games Anthony Davis has played how effective he is playing the top in the five-out sets. The big difference is how much easier it is to get the ball to him earlier in the 24-second clock. Once there’s no fast break opportunity, the point guard gives the ball to a trailing Davis via a dribble hand-off and he’s ready to shoot or attack at the top of the key with four shooters poised to keep help defenders honest.

Besides getting the ball earlier and more often, Anthony Davis will get an opportunity to be much more of a playmaker in these five-out sets as any help will immediately open up one of his teammates for an open three.
If there’s a weakness in Davis’ game, it’s he doesn’t have the playmaking chops that a Nikola Jokic has, having a career average of only 2.4 assists per game. With five-out sets, AD could have his first 4 assists per game season.

Darvin Ham’s new five-out sets are a major game changer in that they’re going to give Anthony Davis more touches and shots than he’s ever had as a Laker. Those opportunities should unleash the beast in Anthony Davis.

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Why Five-Out Sets Are Perfect for Lakers’ Roster

The Lakers’ switch from four-out sets to five-out sets is not only going to unleash the beast in Anthony Davis but also the beasts in LeBron James, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, and Christian Wood.

Make no mistake, thanks to the joint leadership and vision of Rob Pelinka and Darvin Ham, the Lakers finally have enough 3-point shooting to run the modern five-out sets that most of the NBA already successfully run.
The NBA today is a drive-and-dish league and the hardest teams to stop or slow down defensively are the teams loaded with dead-eye shooters who can rain threes or attack the paint to dish or score when challenged.

While five-outs are the ideal half-court offensive sets to unleash the beast in Anthony Davis, they’re also a perfect fit for players who can shoot the three ball and put the ball on the floor and get into the paint if challenged. Imagine LeBron James at the head of the five-out surrounded by four lethal 3-point shooters. Or Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, or Christian Wood. Near every Lakers players is a perfect fit for 5-out sets.

Frankly, the impact of the improved 3-point shooting and newly deployed five-out sets has already been easy to see in the Lakers’ three preseason games. Ham has also complemented the new sets with more off ball action. Watching Darvin and his coaching staff, who up to now had earned most of their praise for great progress in the player development area, starting to show their chops in the half court offense X’s and O’s is encouraging.

What we’ve been watching over the past year has been the evolution of a bold, new, modernized and sustainable championship-driven vision Rob Pelinka and Darvin Ham have embraced for the Los Angeles Lakers.