Lakerholics

The smartest move the Los Angeles Lakers could make this midseason is not to sacrifice depth for a third superstar but instead double down on size and defense as their championship identity by trading for Myles Turner.

The Lakers have clearly seen how playing next to a modern stretch five center like Christian Wood unlocks the best possible version of Anthony Davis as a superstar and makes the team more competitive and dangerous.
Rather than gamble on a better fitting and more complementary version of Russell Westbrook, the Lakers would be smarter to trade for Myles Turner and a deep and diverse roster as their path to more NBA championships.

Darvin Ham has already shown his hand with respect to size and defense at the two guard position, where the defensive oriented 6′ 7″ Cam Reddish or 6′ 9′ Jarred Vanderbilt are projected to become the starting shooting guard. The next logical step is to trade for stretch five center Myles Turner and move Anthony Davis and LeBron James to the four and three. That would give the Lakers great positional size advantage at almost every position.

Trading for Pacer’s center Myles Turner and doubling down on size and defense as the keys to winning in today’s NBA and establishing the bully ball physicality and identity the Lakers want for their basketball team.

THE TRADE

While the Pacers have gotten off to a 6–4 start to the season with an offense performing at an unsustainable level and a defense that sucks, chances are high they’ll become sellers rather than buyers by the middle of December.

While the Lakers can offer a package of young players under 30 to match salaries, any trade for Myles Turner will require significant draft capital from the Lakers, in the form of at least a lightly protected pick and swaps.
In addition to their top-5 protected 2029 first round pick, the Lakers could also include their 2027 first round pick if first through fourth and pick swaps for their 2028 and 2020 first round draft picks in a Turner package.

With the great play of Tyrese Haliburton and a bevy of talented players under 23-years old, the Pacers hope to be good enough to make the play-in tournament this season. If those aspirations fail, the Pacers will be sellers. The Pacers do have two coveted veterans in 27-year old center Myles Turner and 30-year old elite 3-point shooter Buddy Hield, whose time to be sold high for top dollars in return for draft capital may have finally come.

The Pacers need young players who can defend and a deal to acquire three valuable young prospects and one or two post-LeBron James first round picks or swaps from the Lakers could happen as soon as December 15th.

THE DEPTH CHART

The immediate impact of trading for Myles Turner is the Los Angeles Lakers will suddenly have the biggest and best defensive starting lineup and deepest and most diverse 10-player rotation in the entire league.

The Lakers’ starting lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Cam Reddish, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Myles Turner would have positional size advantage that few teams in the NBA would be able to match or counter.
The Lakers would have a starting lineup that’s bigger, longer, and more athletic than any other team and physically capable of totally dominating opposing teams in the paint, on the boards, and from the free throw line.

The Lakers’ primary backups of Austin Reaves, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Christian Wood, and Jaxson Hayes could be the deepest and most diverse bench and anchor the best 10-man rotation in the league.
The Lakers would have everything needed to cruise in the regular season and peak in the playoffs. Two elite rim protectors. Two elite stretch bigs. Two elite point-of-attack perimeter defenders. Two elite playmakers.

Trading for Indiana Pacers’ center Myles Turner is the ultimate move by the Los Angeles Lakers to build what could be the NBA’s next generation defense with major positional size and length advantage at most positions.

THE SALARY CAP

While the Lakers sacrificed valuable draft capital to acquire Myles Turner, they have actually improved their salary cap position because they now possess over $70 million in coveted players on team friendly contracts.

Have players that other teams covet on under market contracts will enable the Lakers to take advantage of star players suddenly becoming available. Trade assets include Turner, Russell, Hachimura, Reaves, and Vanderbilt.
Assuming the Lakers did not give up more than their 2029 first round pick and the 2027 first round pick if it’s top-4, they should then have enough draft capital next summer to offer at least 1 first round pick and 2 swaps.

For the second year in a row, the Lakers have also remained below both luxury tax thresholds thanks to negotiating under market contracts with many of their players and attracting talented players on minimum deals.
The Lakers success with minimum contract projects like Jaxson Hayes, Rui Hachimura, and Cam Reddish — the 8th, 9th, and 10th picks in the 2019 draft — is the only reason the Lakers can afford to trade for Myles Turner.

The Los Angeles Lakers’ trade for Myles Turner would not only make them a championship defensive team but also leave them with great depth and enough draft capital to make a blockbuster deal to replace LeBron James.

The Los Angeles Lakers may have an opportunity to pull off a blockbuster trade before the deadline to acquire superstar shooting guard Zach LaVine and elite point-of-attack point guard Alex Caruso from the Chicago Bulls.

Emergence of potential super teams in Boston, Milwaukee, and Phoenix and slow starts by the Lakers and Bulls have led to rumors of a possible midseason trades between the two teams focused on LaVine and Caruso.
For a LaVine/Caruso trade to become viable, the Bulls would have to decide before the trade deadline that it was time to rebuild and the Lakers that this season was time to go all-in with their remaining tradable draft capital.

The Lakers want to have their cake and eat it too, walking an impossible tightrope trying win another title before LeBron retires while also building a roster that’s deep and talented enough to contend once James is gone.
One thing about the Lakers is they never forget stars win championships. There’s no Sophie’s Choice for the Lakers over a third star vs. deep roster. The Lakers need a third star so they’ll still have two when Lebron’s gone.

So let’s look at what a Lakers and Bulls trade for Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso might look like, what kind of depth the Lakers would still have after the trade, and how the trade might affect the Lakers salary cap position.

The Trade

Trading for Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso could transform the Lakers into legitimate championship contenders and secure a third superstar who’s the perfect fit to replace LeBron James and be Anthony Davis’ co-superstar.

Just as importantly, the trade leaves the Lakers with a dramatically better starting lineup and deep and diverse 10-man championship level rotation. LaVine’s their new offensive closer and Caruso their new defensive stopper.
At 28 and 29-years old, Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso are excellent fits for the 30-year old Anthony Davis’ championship window. They suddenly give the Lakers a massive backcourt upgrade in a league dominated by guards.

The Lakers would have to include D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, and Jalen Hood-Schifino to match salaries and their 2029 first round pick and possible pick swaps to tempt Chicago to make the trade.
While I hate losing Hachimura, LaVine and Casuso definitely provide the Lakers with the superstar offensive scorer and All-NBA defensive stopper the team needs to take their game to the next level and win the title.

Even if the Lakers have to include a pick swap or two, trading for LaVine and Caruso could be the most important move Rob Pelinka and the Lakers could make to win their 18th championship and replace LeBron James.

The Depth Chart

The major challenge for any NBA team with more than two max contract superstars is how to build a roster deep and diverse enough to win when most of the remaining rotation players will be on minimum salaries?

Not only do Caruso, LaVine, James, Davis, and Hayes as starters have more offensive firepower and defensive tenacity than the Lakers’ current starters but Reaves, Reddish, Vanderbilt, Prince, and Wood give them great depth.
The addition of LaVine gives the Lakers a legitimate backcourt superstar, something L.A. especially needs in a guard and wing driven league. Zach gives them their first true championship caliber closer since Kobe Bryant.

Strategically, the Lakers would be smart to make a move sooner rather than later to replace LeBron James. In fact, not only does that give them more time with three superstars but could also motivate LeBron to keep playing.
Meanwhile, getting Alex Caruso back is not only the cherry atop the trade but also the perfect defensive counter to Zach LaVine’s offense. How about a Caruso, Reddish, Vanderbilt, Prince, and Davis defensive ‘Death Lineup.’

The Lakers’ depth chart clearly shows that the team has a dramatically better and more balance starting lineup and 10-man rotation after the trade for Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso. Bottom line, trade is worth draft capital.

The Salary Cap

The Lakers were able to trade for Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso and still remain below the first luxury tax threshold and hard tax, which is a tribute to Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ salary cap expertise and management.

Being able to build a deep, diverse, and talented roster with the cap space left over after paying max salaries to three superstars is not an easy task that requires a front office adept at finding great players at bargain prices.
What’s allowed the Lakers to trade for Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso and still keep a strong 10-man rotation are the important roles and minutes earned by minimum salary project players Wood, Reddish, and Hayes.

The Lakers did a great job cleaning up their salary cap and have a strong portfolio of coveted players on team friendly contracts and three potential post-LeBron James first round picks or swaps to offer for a third superstar. Unlike other super teams who’ve sacrificed roster depth and diversity for more three or more superstars, the Lakers could still trade for a third star, build a deep diverse roster, and avoid the NBA’s two luxury tax thresholds.

After trading for LaVine and Caruso, the Lakers would have a clean cap free of luxury taxes and the flexibility to trade for or sign a third superstar in free agency once LeBron leaves in free agency or retires from the NBA.

There’s mounting evidence Darvin Ham’s decision to abandon the four-out sets that carried the team to last year’s conference finals in favor of new five-out sets is one of the major reasons behind the Lakers’ offensive woes.

Seduced by early preseason success, Darvin Ham went all-in on five-out sets despite the fact none of the players on the roster possess the consistent speed and quickness to beat their man off the dribble and get to the rim. The result is opposing teams packing the paint even more against LeBron James and Anthony Davis, making it even harder for them to get to the rim, and exposing the Lakers inability to take or make a high volume of threes.

Statistically, the Lakers currently rank dead last in 3-point percentage. They’re the only team in the entire league shooting under 30% from deep. At 3–5, their 12th in the West with the second worst offense in the NBA.
The Lakers’ disappointing 3–5 start has brought back bad memories of last season’s disastrous 2–10 start. Despite a deeper roster, injuries have been rampant. Was the new roster overrated? Is Darvin Ham the right coach?

The one major difference between how the Lakers played to get to the conference finals last year and how they’re playing right now is they’re playing 5-out sets on offense instead of last year’s 4-out w/dunker sets.

WHY FOUR-OUT SETS ARE BETTER FIT FOR LAKERS

Four-out sets with a player in the dunker spot are a better fit for the Lakers’ current roster than five-out sets because they work best with bigger lineups and generate more rebounds, points in the paint, and made free throws.

Five-out sets and four-out sets create different kinds of spacing. Five-out sets position all five players outside the 3-point line, creating a huge void of space in the paint. Beat your man off the dribble and no rim protection.
Four-out sets, on the other hand, give the four perimeter players more space between help defenders and thus better chance to penetrate but a more crowded paint now due to player in dunker spot and his defender.

Look at the following two charts showing where players should be positioned for both a five-out set and a four-out set with a player in the dunker spot. Four-out sets are a much better fit for this Lakers roster.
Without Dennis Schroder or a younger LeBron James, the Lakers simply do not have the offensive players with the quickness and speed to beat their defenders off the dribble and get to the rim in a five-out offensive set.

The problem for a team like the Lakers is the space between help defenders is less in five-out set because five players are sharing the space above the 3-point line instead of four when they play four-out sets with a dunker.
Five-out sets are particularly bad sets for slower, shiftier guards like Russell and Reaves who like to run low pick-and-rolls and get into the paint to score and make plays for other, something harder to do on the perimeter.

Darvin Ham needs to remember why his mentor Mike Budenholzer back in January 2021 abandoned the Bucks’ five-out sets in favor of new four-out sets with the fifth player positioned on on the baseline in the dunker’s spot.
Ironically, Budenholzer’s protégé Darvin Ham finds himself in a similar situation as his mentor in 2021. Ham needs to dump the five-out sets until his team learns to shoot and instead go back to the four-out sets w/dunker.

Four-out sets with a player in the dunker spot are better fits for the Lakers because they offer opportunities for positional size advantage, improved points in the paint, made free throws, and better offensive rebounding.

FOUR-OUT SETS OPEN DOOR FOR WOOD AND HAYES

Playing four-out sets could open up more minutes and bigger roles for the Lakers’ two backup centers Christian Wood and Jaxson Hayes while helping the team improve rebounding, points in the paint, and made free throws.

So far this season, the Lakers’ small starting lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Taurean Prince, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis has lead to their offense having the worst 8-game start in the history of the NBA. With the Lakers already facing a critical game early in the season, Ham should be seriously considering ditching the five-out sets and going back to the four-out sets that helped Lakers make it to the conference finals.

To optimize four-out sets, Ham should start Wood or Hayes at the five and move Davis and James to the four and three. He should also replace Russell with Prince at the two and move Reaves to point guard in the four-out sets.
Since the non-LeBron minutes are still the Lakers biggest problem, Ham should plan to use Wood to replace James in a two-bigs lineup with Davis. Wood outside and Davis in the dunker spot could win non-LeBron minutes.

Hopefully, the dismaying loss to the Rockets has awakened Darvin Ham to the fact that running five-out sets is what’s behind the Lakers’ offensive woes and reverting to last season’s four-out w/dunker sets is the solution.

At its simplest, basketball is about shot making. The primary reason the Los Angeles Lakers are struggling right now is they just cannot make shots. The good news is that can be immediately fixed by simply making shots.

Right now, the Lakers are the only team in the entire league shooting under 30% from deep. Opposing teams know that and are actively game planning their offenses on L.A.’s inability to shoot the three or defend or rebound. Poor 3-point shooting totally destroys the Lakers’ 5-out offense and allows opposing teams pack the paint and force their poor shooters to fire blanks, igniting inevitable long rebounds and opponent transition fast breaks.

That’s led to the Lakers 3–5 start to the season, which right now has them 12th in the west and outside the playoffs, a far cry from the team that made it to the Western Conference Finals after a horrendous start last season.
The Lakers‘ 106.6 Offrtg is 28th and their 113.8 Defrtg 19th out of 30 teams, resulting in a -7.2 Netrtg, which is 27th or 4th worst in the league and a disappointing start at both ends of the court but especially offensively.

While they can hope for injured players to return, major midseason trade, or lineup and rotation changes, the one thing the Lakers can do right now to immediately fix most of what’s wrong with team is simply make shots.

WHO NEEDS TO ‘MAKE’ MORE 3-POINT SHOTS?

The three Laker shooters who need to dramatically improve their 3-point shooting percentages are starting point guard D’Angelo Russell, starting shooting guard Austin Reaves, and starting power forward LeBron James.

Russell is shooting 32.0% on 6.3 attempts per game vs. 41.4% on 6.5 attempts last season, Reaves 27.8% on 4.5 attempts per game vs. 39.8% on 3.4 attempts, and James 31.0% on 5.3 attempts vs. 32.15 on 6.9 attempts. Combined, Russell, Reaves, and James are taking 16.1 3-point attempts per game, over half the Lakers’ 30.4 attempted threes per game. So far, they’ve made 39 out of 128 threes for 30.5% vs. 253 of 704 or 36.0% last season.

Of greater concern is the Lakers are making just 9.0 out 30.4 threes per game this season for 29.6% vs. 10.8 out of 31.2 threes for 34.6%. Rather than improving over last year, Lakers are scoring 5.4 points less per game.
Since the Lakers are making 9.0 threes and allowing 13.3 threes per game, they have a negative 3-point differential of 4.3 threes per game or 12.9 points per game vs. 2.4 threes per game or 7.2 points per game last year.

Unless Reaves and Russell suddenly start hitting their shots, the Lakers may have to make a change, possibly moving Austin Reaves to point guard and starting Taurean Prince, who’s been the team’s 4th best 3-point shooter.

WHO NEEDS TO ‘TAKE’ MORE 3-POINT SHOTS?

The top three 3-point percentage shooters on the Los Angeles Lakers — center Anthony Davis, backup center Christian Wood, and backup small forward Rui Hachimura — need opportunities to take more 3-point shots.

This season, Anthony Davis is shooting 42.9% from deep on 1.0 attempts per game while Christian Wood and Rui Hachimura are each shooting 41.7% on 3.0 attempts per game. All three need to attempt more threes. Right now, their 7.0 combined attempts represent less than a fourth of the Lakers total 3-point attempts per game. The offseason hope had been that the Lakers would be able to increase their 3-point volume and percentage.

If the Lakers opt to start Reaves and Prince in the backcourt, that would open up a starting small forward spot for Rui Hachimura or starting center spot for Christian Wood with Davis and James becoming the forwards.
That would enable the Lakers to improve the 3-point shooting gravity of their starting lineup with either a Reaves, Prince, Hachimura, James, and Davis lineup or a Reaves, Prince, James, Davis, and Wood starting lineup.

The los Angeles Lakers will not be able to improve via a trade until December 15 when recently signed players can be traded. In the meantime, what’s wrong with the Lakers can be simply fixed by just making shots.

After seven quarters of searching, the Lakers finally found a lineup to build upon as they went jumbo sized with Christian Wood joining LeBron James and Anthony Davis to stun the Suns with a big fourth quarter comeback.

Trailing by 12 after three quarters with a grim 0–2 start looming, Darvin Ham smartly put the Lakers’ new LeBron James load management scheme on hold and committed to playing a defensive oriented jumbo sized lineup.
Ham’s new closing lineup with a LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Chris Wood front court and D’Angelo Russell and Gabe Vincent or Austin Reaves backcourt won the fourth quarter 28–11 for a wild 100–95 comeback win.

That lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Gabe Vincent, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Christian Wood played 10 minutes last night with a solid 114.3 offensive rating, impossible 23.8 defensive rating, and elite 77.8 net rating.
The same jumbo sized, defensive oriented lineup with Reaves instead of Russell played 5 minutes last night and posted a dominant 133.3 offensive rating, strong 66.7 defensive rating, and impressive 66.7 net rating.

Anthony Davis wants to play the four and the Lakers want to play two bigs. The Lakers’ new closing lineup just pushed the odds of those developments happening from pure preseason fantasy to regular season eventuality.

Why Lakers Should Start New Two Bigs Lineup?

It may take Darvin Ham time to get there but there are compelling reasons why starting a version of the Lakers’ new closing lineup would optimize the paint point and free throw differentials that encompass the team’s identity.

First and foremost, the Lakers won last night’s game due to the 29-point differential in their favor from points-in-the-paint and made-free-throws, which has been the heart of their identity as a team under Darvin Ham. Heading into camp, the Lakers reportedly wanted to play two bigs during the regular season like they did to win the 23020 bubble championship. Until the fourth quarter last night, the Lakers played traditional lineups.

The success the Lakers had in the fourth quarter with the new closing lineup cannot be ignored or marginalized. While Vincent increased the defensive intensity, the big lineup change buzz was about Christian Wood.
Look for Ham to give the new closing lineup a deeper look over the next few games. While the front court appears set, Reddish and Vanderbilt could also force their way into the conversation about who will be the guards.

Ultimately, Christian Wood will join the Lakers starting lineup alongside LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, and either D’Angelo Russell or Gabe Vincent. That lineup’s a blueprint for an NBA championship.

How Do Lakers Handle LeBron Defending Wing

The major con against the Lakers playing two bigs with Anthony Davis and Christian Wood is that it could force soon-to-be 39-years old LeBron James to have to defend and chase younger wing scorers around multiple screens.

Strategically, while the Lakers obviously want to avoid wearing LeBron out defending threes, optimizing their identity as a physical defensive oriented team that lives in the paint and on the free throw line is their top priority. The Lakers can easily solve the problem of LeBron chasing wing scorers around screens by strategically switching everything on defense, which would also work better with the drop coverage Lakers’ bigs like to play.

The Lakers’ defensive identity is not defined by point-of-attack speed and quickness but by dominant size and length that shrinks the court and forces teams into live-ball turnovers that the Lakers turn into fast breaks.
Playing Christian Wood at center instead of Taurean Prince at small forward gives the Lakers positional size advantage at all three front court positions. That size advantage is integral to the Lakers identity as a team.

The Lakers need to switch everything on defense to keep LeBron from having to chase wing scorers around screens and prevent teams from using screens to get into the paint for easy floaters over our drop coverage.