5 Things: Who Blinks First

Like an old timey spaghetti western complete with reverb boot steps we’re all stuck in the middle of a gunslinger draw with no end in sight. We got ourselves a whole slew of gunslingers, hand on the pistol, nobody blinking. Soon as they do, guns will come loose and the iron will fly. But for now…dead-eyed stares, eye’s watering from the holding them open. Who is going to blink first?

1. Gunslinger #1 (aka the Brooklyn Nets): Much has been said, written, and opinionated about what the Nets will do. With the first real clarity on the situation since the Durant trade request put the entire summer into topsy-turvyville, that being that Durant no longer has faith in either coach Steve Nash (a departure from his comments as early as last April) or GM Sean Marks. Frankly that’s astounding to hear. He has no issues with fair-weather teammate Kyrie Irving who misses games no whims and in the name of a personal crusade he doesn’t have much vested in? Nope, but the coach he voted in confidence for in his exit interview and the GM who bent over backwards to accommodate him gotta go. When the news that a weekend get together with Durant and Nets owner Joe Tsai came out I was thinking it would be either to expand the teams he’d be willing to be traded for or to recant his demand altogether. So when the news came out was something that probably ought to have been included in his first “trade me” meeting…well, to put it mildly, I was amused. Durant ain’t blinking: Nash and Marks need to go or…what? Will he sit out a season, not collect a paycheck and fume for the next four years? I don’t think so, I think he fumes and plays. Honestly, who knows and, really, who cares except that it affects gunslinger #2. My working theory is the Nets fire Nash and Marks
2. Gunslinger #2 (aka The Los Angeles Lakers): The Lakers need to improve the roster this summer. The moves they have made to date fall well short of that. We drafted a guy who can’t shoot, signed a young guy with our MLE that can’t shoot and brought in some centers one of whom used to be able to shoot but we’ll see. Not surprisingly, when the date finally arrived that LeBron James could sign or at least speak openly about an extension, that date came and went. Followed somewhat quickly by a “productive” meeting that resulted in no public information or contract extension news of any kind. Suffice to say that without any actual information to go on, LeBron isn’t happy with a roster he has in some way signed off on up until the end of last season. Now he wants changes, changes that will make future moves by the Lakers nigh impossible. While I can appreciate his personal position on the Lakers 2027 and 2029 draft picks (which if traded this season means we won’t have another 1st round draft pick to trade until the summer of 2024 unless it’s a draft day deal) we need at least one of them moving forward. 1st round draft picks are the grease that makes trades for below-market players possible. It’s what makes trading an expensive player into another team’s cap space possible. We have very little grease left and pick swaps don’t do it. Those are the sweetener that goes along with the actual pick. Second round draft picks definitely don’t get it done, doesn’t matter how many you trade. To my knowledge there are no rules governing how many 2nd rounders can be shipped out which should give you an idea of what their NBA market value is. There are likely three deals sitting in front of The King from here on out: a 1 year extension for the max, a 1+1 (PO on year 2) for the max, and a 2 year extension for the max. Those will be on the table until one is signed or LeBron’s current deal expires and he is an unrestricted free agent. My guess is LeBron has Rob’s word these deals will be available barring catastrophic injury…maybe even in that event, as well. That they have assured LeBron they will do any reasonable deal that comes their way. LeBron ain’t blinking, barring his concerns about suffering a major injury this season he has a deal until next summer and likely prioritizes freedom over anything else if this season goes sideways.
3. Gunslinger #3 (aka Jeannie Buss): You might have thought this would go under the Lakers. I see it a bit differently as I am of the opinion that Jeannie has clipped Rob’s wings a bit this summer. I have no doubt that Rob would have sent out any and all draft picks to make a deal happen because, well, that’s about all Rob does. He is amazing at wasting draft assets on players whose services we do not retain. I would imagine Jeannie has had enough of that if I have. It’s her money, after all. There are two things Jeannie has the option of blinking on. First is the overall future of the Lakers and she has made it clear that this is a major priority for her. I’m sure that she, like the rest of us, is aware that we have draft picks we can use in either 2024 or 2025 (NOLA’s choice) and again in 2026 (currently kind of held hostage by said NOLA) and 2028 (not able to be traded along with either 2027 or 2029 because of the Stepien rule). that’s not the point, though. The point is holding onto those picks gives you a better chance of making a deal any time between now and the summer of either 2024 (when we can trade the 2031 draft pick, 2030 would be out unless we still have 2029 in our pocket, again Stepien rule). I’m also sure she knows that any pick we have can be used on a draft day deal because, technically, that’s the day it’s being used. Just can’t be used after draft day or during the regular season. The second thing Jeannie will eventually have to decide if she’ll blink on is a more expensive prospect: paying Russ not to play. In theory the Lakers could tell Russ he’s not going to play…but we’ll still pay you! If you ask me there is no way in Hell the same owner who balked at paying Jared Dudley to basically be a coach in a players uniform will pay Russell Westbrook $47 million dollars to stay home to Netflix and chill. She will never, ever, ever, never, never, ever gonna blink on that. If a dude making the veteran minimum, whose contributions were valued by both coaches and players, irked her than this beyond reality. It will not happen. She’ll blink on the draft picks before she blinks on that and I don’t think she blinks on those, either. The future of the franchise is as important to her as the present. She knows the Lakers will endure far beyond LeBron James.
4. Gunslinger #4 (aka Russell Westbrook): You might think “Jamie, Russ opted in…what else can he do?” The answer my friend is something that has about the same chance as Jeannie blinking on telling him to stay home and that’s change his approach. To his credit, and it could all just be PR fluff mind you, Russ has been present this summer. He was present at coach Ham’s into presser. He was present at summer league. He’s been working out at the team facility. He seems to be as all in as Russ can be on next season. Does that portend a different ;looking Russell Westbrook? That’s a hard thing to say. He’s an established vet who has made a amrk playing and acting a certain way, to think that will all change just because coach ham said it should is hard to imagine. Still, in my opinion, this is the thing the most likely to change…kinda sort of. If Russ can do one thing better next season that could improve our fortunes it would be his finishing around the rim. I don’t need him to transform into Steph, I don’t need him to become Michael Cooper 2.0. I just want to see him make more layups and dunks. That’s it. I expect turnovers from high usage players, I would like to see fewer from many players including LeBron and AD. The not finishing at the rim is death, though. It kills fast breaks. It kills rallies. It kills joy. It needs to stop. Russ needs to make layups and I think he’ll be better next season. I think he blinks on that one.
5. Gunslinger #5 (aka the Indiana Pacers): Bear with me here. They’re on this list not because they’re under the gun in any meaningful way, they have a set roster, cap space to spare, and all of their and other teams draft picks. I have them here because they have the 2 players I think the Lakers need to move on more aggressively than they seem to have shown an inclination to. Myles Turner and Buddy Heild represent fixes to 2 major areas of weakness: defense and shooting. The Lakers really need to figure out how to get Indy to blink on a deal for those 2 players. Brooklyn isn’t going to come to terms with anything quickly. The Lakers need to do a couple of things to make that more likely. First publicly end any and all pursuit of Kyrie Irving. Walk away from that dumpster fire and focus in on Indy. Second make an offer for Turner, Buddy, 2027 1st rounder, 2028 & 2029 pick swap and however many 2nd rounders it takes to get a deal done. Do whatever it takes to save face on that second first rounder which they have sworn is off the table all spring and summer long. Add whatever sweeteners are needed and also say that this deal has an expiration of one week prior to training camp opening and we won’t be trading Russ until February. There will be better deals for Russ at that time, the best deals possible, really. However, it makes more sense for the Lakers to do the best they can to go into the season with the roster they like more. I’m not sure Indy blinks on that deal but I sure hope Rob tries.

All in all I still think the following most likely to be: Russ is on the team until around the trading deadline, Rob will then make LakerTom’s dreams come true and finally execute an in-season trade, and that the Lakers hold onto both 1st rounders…for now. We’ll see, as the KD news shows us there is no sport wackier than the NBA where literally anything can happen.