5 Things: What happens if…

In this edition of 5 Things we take a look at what happens if things break incredibly wrong for the Lakers in the off season. With well-documented cap issues, few draft picks left to trade and holes throughout the line up the Lakers need a lot of things to break right for them this summer in order to best assure themselves a chance to win another banner.

1. None of our free agents agree to a sign and trade? The sign and trade has become very en vogue in the modern NBA. Small market teams looking to keep their costs deflated, big market teams wanting an artificial ceiling to bump up against so as not to spend themselves into oblivion and teams trading an under-contract player to the team of his choice in return for at least something. The thing is these kind of deals require a lot of permission. Permission from the other team involved in the negotiation who may want to simply sign said player instead of providing the Lakers with anything of value. Permission from the player(s) signing the new deal, unless one of the players under contract as a no-trade clause. That pretty much closes the door on Montrezl “I finally got some run in LA” Harrell. The only way I see Trezz acquiescing to a S&T is if the money and role are so good he can’t pass it up. Hard to see where that could be. Trezz is also unlikely to pick up his PO for next season although if his agent gauges the market for his client, which was surprisingly low given his run with the Clippers and winning the 6motY award prior to coming here, he may actually be back. That leaves either guys like Wes Matthews Jr. or the mercurial Dennis Schroder. Schroder made $17.4 million last season and is looking for a $20 for 5 or $25 for 4 year deal. If one is honest, that’s absurd. That puts him in the same earning category as Fred VanVleet/Malcom Brogdon. For reference they both scored more points per game, took and made more three pointers per game, had better assist to turnover ratios, and rebounded the ball better. Fred VanVleet was a key cog on a championship team, Malcom Brogdon upped his game this season despite losing to the Bucks with Indy. Schroder shrunk, his numbers dipped across the board and he missed crucial games this season…twice…because he had to enter the NBA health and safety protocols In short there is no metric that makes me believe Schroder is worth more than the money he earned this season, at best. The fact that he could have signed a 4 year deal for $20 mil from the Lakers is something I expect Dennis may end up regretting as I don’t see him getting that money on the open market on a team as high profile as ours along with the title expectations. If that’s not important to him, swell, thanks for all you did and good luck to you.
2. The Lakers can’t stay healthy? This is the conundrum every season. Every season health of the team ranks near the top of my priority list. When you have an aging superstar, like we do, it’s even more important. There are of course no guarantees just ask Giannis and the Bucks or Kawhi Leonard. Leonard is the load management pioneer and still suffered a seriously sprained knee, Giannis just landed awkwardly and could be done until next season. Accidents happen. What can be done is to minimize the risk with an elite training staff and good practices. Practices that don’t involve going into the NBA H&SP…twice…in a three month span. In short this is the most unguaranteeable point as it involves a modicum of good luck. Where the Lakers can do more to join elite company is to assemble the best training staff money can buy. There is no salary cap for coaches and staff.
3. Speaking of coaches, what are the Lakers going to do about re-vamping the offense? This point was originally about specifically replacing Jason Kidd but since we just hired Fizdale it’s safe to say that we’ll be maximizing our flow and space as much as possible. Whether that heralds the end of the, as LakerTom likes to call them, low-post dinosaurs in center form remains to be seen. Frankly, I find that school of thought to be highly one-dimensional.. Zubac, Cousins, Lopez, and of course Ayton are all bigs with varying degrees of stretch to their games. Rather I think we need a better shooting coach than perhaps Mike Penberthy can be. We need a shooting whisperer like…Mike D’antoni…who will encourage his shooters by never telling them it’s a bad shot, especially when they are wide open. We cannot rely on the law of averages. Therein lies the true fool’s gold. While I feel we’ve done more to address the three point shooting than some have I am also of the opinion that we have lacked schemes and sets designed to get specific guys specific shots.
4. We start off terribly next season? It’s safe to say that there is at least one reason why coach Vogel has yet to be extended. One is potentially, but not likely, the money. We can’t cap ourselves with coaches so if they’re quibbling over a few million bucks that would be surprising. Rather I think the front office wants to see what we can really do outside the Bubble. Much was made of the no fans aspect of the Bubble but I always thought the biggest advantage the Lakers had in the Bubble was the lack of travel. It meant LeBron could instantly start treatment, that the coaches could instantly start watching film, that all of your time was maximized and focused on one thing because there were no distractions. At least not many. If we start off rough I expect that Vogel won’t last too long, Fizadale can easily come in and replace Frank and that may just the reason he took our job over some other teams out there.
5. What does all this mean for the offseason and free agency? It means the following: we’re picking at #22 and we can’t trade that player until free agency starts. While some are hasty to include that pick in trade scenarios, and I wouldn’t be adverse to it for the right kind of player(s), there is also something to be said for simply making the pick. That pick comes with a scaling salary that starts at $2, 042, 600. By year 3 it’s only $2,246,900. That, ladies and gentlemen, is what’s known as cost-controlled talent. As we saw with THT who played for the bargain basement price of $1,517,981 and Alex Caruso ($2,750,000) you can get a lot of on court impact from rookie deals. While you certainly want to surround AD and LeBron with the best available talent there is also something to be said for the Lakers ability to scour the various gyms of planet Earth and find impact players. From Jordan Clarkson to even Devontae Cacock the Lakers have always done a great job at finding NBA-level talent that other teams pass on. We really need to maximize that skill with LeBron and AD on the team. Otherwise we’ll have to ship out pretty much every decent role-player and fill the roster out with vet minimum deals. As it is we’ll have our fair share of vet minimum deals this season anyhow.

Take heart, Laker faithful, we have 2 of the best players on planet Earth. We just need them to be healthy and for the team around them to be semi-in sync when the playoffs roll around. My wish for next season is for both LeBron and Ad to do a little more load managing and for Frank to try and manage their regular season minutes a little better. Realistically we’re only a piece or two away from being a dominant team. Everyone thought Schroder was the missing piece and who knows, maybe he can be if he gets his big deal and feels secure about his future. I don’t see Andre’ Drummond as one of the main pieces we need but there’s also no denying his effectiveness rebounding the ball and his quick hands on defense. Maybe all we have to do is…(insert LakerTom nightmare dream footage here)…run it back.