5 Things: The Offseason

While the NBA Finals play out (congrats to Miami on avoiding the sweep, still got Denver in 6) the rest of the NBA has already turned it’s attention to the next campaign. Whether that be adjusting the roster, over-hauling a team, or rebuilding a coaching staff every franchise has a laundry list of questions that need answering and holes that need plugging. For the most popular sports franchise in hoops (and maybe all sport) that is true, as well. It’s hard to build a winner and even harder to build (or rebuild) a dynasty). Simply put the offseason game the NBA goes through can be wicked hard.

1. The biggest offseason question is whether the Lakers should continue to build around AD and LeBron? While I have supported the idea of at least seeing what the return could be for a Davis trade there’s simply no way the Lakers will trade LeBron James (sorry Kyrie). Frankly, given his injuries and drop off from three, a return from Davis would likely be underwhelming. So stay the course and damn the torpedoes, FULL SPEED AHEAD!!! Now, with that being said, the shape of how we do that can be seen through a variety of facets. One thing that I believe has to be factored in is the continuing decline of LeBron James. That’s not to say he can’t put up a solid stat line, just the manner in which that happens is going to change more and more. What used to be elite efficiency will take a hit due to more jumpers being shot and fewer forays to the rim, especially in the regular season. Whether or not any of us believes LBJ still is an elite player is kind of besides the point now. He’ll be paid like one, will not perform like one (especially during the regular season) and the end is much closer than maybe some folks want it to be. For my part I’m kind of over the whole “behind the scenes machinations that seem to follow LeBron but I also know the Lakers will do all they can to make sure he retires in that purple and gold jersey so a Laker is sitting atop the “Most Points Scored All Time” record. When it comes to AD the refrain is” if he could just…” and then a variety of things can follow. Stay healthy, play like a true big man, make a delicious alfredo sauce. I think the Lakers and AD are sort of bound on the path forward together. Health and small decline in certain skills means you won’t get back what you paid and toss in that there aren’t a ton of available multi-tool big men out there likely to be available to us and you can start to see why the Lakers and AD are stuck in this marriage of convenience. I have now fully come back to the “AD needs to play the 4 if only in name” position. I think playing the 5, while it is certainly his best position when it comes to offensive rebounding and scoring in the paint where he’s elite, makes him more susceptible to fatigue injuries and bulking up in order to do so has robbed him of what was (for a big man) an elite first-step and jump shot. I could be wrong on all of that, maybe AD has simply regressed, but it’s hard to not look at the added weight (220 coming into the league, 253 last season and spoke openly about adding weight the last 2 seasons which have been injury-filled) and not start to think that 235-240 is more where he should top out. Again, I could be horribly wrong and less weight means nothing (we’re not talking a Zion-like issue, or at least I don’t think we are) but if AD and the Lakers are going to be together for the long haul it may behoove all parties to look at the issue of longevity and endurance from all possible angles.
2. The point guard question. Everyone wants to take the ball out of LeBron’s hands. Even LeBron. Until he’s playing and then he has the ball in his hands. Better point guards than D’Angelo Russell have tried to co-exist with The King controlling the rock and they either flounder (Russ) or play second-fiddle and bail (KI). One reason I can see this working better as-is going forward is I have always believed that D-Lo was nothing close to a true point guard. I’ve always, and still, think of him as combo guard. He plays just as well off ball as on (maybe better depending on the defense) and he lacks the speed to truly break a defense down or collapse it in the paint. That works because what LeBron really doesn’t want to do is lead the fast break. If he can jog/semi-sprint on a leak out and finish, swell. If he can be the trailer and find his way to the rim for an easy dunk? Dope. I don’t think he’s too keen on grabbing the rebound and pushing it 70+ feet to create an easy bucket for a teammate, not like he used to be able to do. That being said the true need for the Lakers are multiple players who can rebound and lead a break and, incredibly, we already have grip of those players: Davis, Reaves, James, Vanderbilt, and Russell are all capable of leading the charge and making a great play in transition. LeBron will be the de facto PG in the half court, make no mistake. So toss out the ordinary needs of other teams, we need multiple combo players who can rebound and push. To that I have the Lakers letting Russell walk now and using that money in other areas. I have LeBron starting at the PG flanked by Reaves, Hachimura, Vanderbilt and Davis (with Vanderbilt playing the true role of the five) at least on the roster as-is. We’ll need to re-sign the cheaper (but comparable talent-wise) Dennis Schroder.
3. Keep Malik Beasley and maybe even Mo Bamba. Value now? Low. Value at next season’s trade deadline? Much higher simply because, in the case of Malik, it’ll be $16.5 million in expiring salary and there will be a few teams (especially next season) who will want to get out from under long-term salary. For all his struggles there will be reason enough based simply on his overall numbers to take a flier on Beasley and potentially letting him walk and that applies to us, as well. The market for an elite shooter starts at $10 mil and caps out around $20 mil, Malik is right in that range. With a summer of cohesion, camp so he knows his role, and the coaches getting better acquainted with how out use him the Lakers should probably refrain from trading Malik unless it’s for a bonafide improvement. Mo Bamba is in the same boat but with an caveat: since his deal isn’t guaranteed the Lakers can either cut him and save $10 mil now, in camp, or a declining sum of that deal as the season goes on until January 7th when all contracts become guaranteed. That means, should we trade him, the best time could be when there’s about half his deal left un-guaranteed which represents a $5 million chunk of change that could be vaporized from a team’s cap space. No need to send a player back, just a TPE the Lakers can do with as they will (TPE’s count against the cap until they expire or are traded). My guess is we keep Malik and cut Mo simply to keep the cap manageable.
4. R&R. Reaves and Rui. Depending on many factors, one of R&R could be priced off the Lakers. While I doubt anyone dumps a massive deal on Rui’s doorstep day one his $18 million cap hold will be a small issue until he signs a contract. If i were Rob I’d just sit back, sign both player’s QO’s and tell them we intend to match and let the market dictate the price to retain their services. Hard to see that going south the way it did with Ayton in Phoenix who played an entire season expecting a max offer that only came after they matched Indy’s offer. I suppose, in Rui’s case, you could make an initial offer but I believe he’ll still test free agency for a while. What happens with these two will shape a lot of our secondary moves as they are the two best players up for a new deal and the price tag to keep both may fuel a decision on guys like Schroder, D-Lo, Malik and Mo. I believe , like LakerTom and I’m sure many other fans here and abroad, that the Lakers will never go over that second tax apron. Not just because of the penalties associated with such an action but also because pf the Laker front office overarching philosophies on the subject of luxury taxes (as in they don’t want to pay them. Ever). I’m pretty sure the max offer Reaves can command is a total of $98 mil: “Whereas the Lakers are capped at giving Reaves a four-year contract worth $50-plus million outright, another team can go as high as $98.7 million. The max offer could include relatively modest salaries of $11.4 and $11.9 million in the first two years, but starting in Year 3 the payout would soar to $36.9 million.” (per Bleacher Report). Rob has said he’ll match up to 100 mil, which is basically saying he’ll match anything. If so, and we can retain Rui for something sensible, I think the Lakers set themselves up nicely for the rest of free agency.
5. Guys I’d like to see the Lakers make an offer for/trade for. I’d love to see us acquire a bruising center that can allow AD to drop back to the 4 with more regularity. Especially if it means he gets his legs under him better for outside shots. Don’t need a stretch 5 if AD can get back to 33-35% from three. So, in that vein, I would love to see a Beasley for Steven Adams and Xavier Tillman plus filler (or cash) and I’d use 2 second round picks to grease those wheels (or a heavily protected FRP or a pick swap). Adams would be brought in essentially for the playoffs and Tillman would be brought in as a regular season minutes sponge. I really liked what I saw from Tillman in the Grizzlies series and I’d squelch the trade if memphis didn’t use their team option on him and make him an offer. Mongo beat me to it but I could see the lakers making the same offer they would to Dennis to Gabe Vincent who has played great in the playoffs. His career numbers don’t jump off the sheet but he’s been an integral part of their culture and winning mentality. For me that goes as far as shooting percentages or raw stats. Or I could see the Lakers offering Malik and Mo to Atlanta for Clint Capella and Saddiq Bey. Not sure if you could maybe nab a second rounder from the Hawks since we;re the one doing their cap sheet a favor. Anyone think orlando would trade Gary HArris and Bol Bol for Malik? Or if they’d take Malik and cash or Max Christie for Fultz? Me neither but I’d suss it out although the risk factor with Fultz seems really high (contract year baby!). The Lakers should certainly present one of LeBron’s old teammates with a reunion, just not irving. I’d kick the tires on what it would cost to bring Kevin Love to LA to finish his career a few blocks from UCLA. Again, like Adams, you’re basically ramping him up for the stretch run/playoffs and to spell AD for a few minutes every game. Just might be a cheaper option. If the Lakers do go the hard cap I hope we use our BAE on Lonnie Walker, can probably vet minimum Wenyan, again, or not (solid regular season minutes eater). Guys like Naz Reid should be given a call and I’d even see if we could swap Larry nance Jr. for Mo Bamba (but I doubt NOLA takes calls from us anymore…).
   
   At any rate, there are obviously a grip-ton of ways the roster can be tweaked around James, Davis, Vanderbilt, Christie and hopefully Reaves and Hachimura. The rest I can pretty much take or leave as I think there are or will be comparable players to be found on the market. One just has decide what continuity looks like with this squad. I wouldn’t even be taken aback if we just run it back as-is, although LeBron will gripe through his back channels for a couple weeks.

All in all Rob did a solid job turning one big contract and some flotsam into a lot of smaller contracts and different flotsam. How he shapes this will be the true defining moment of all that happened this season. Looking forward to a wacky season and what will surely be one of the craziest trade deadlines in NBA history…in like a year.