This train is now headed in the completely wrong direction. First off, I want to give credit to the players who are clearly trying. I thought the overall effort was good. The Lakers are obviously missing Schroder and Davis and, as such, will struggle to manufacture easy looks. Especially when LeBron runs out of juice in, yet another, overtime game. LeBron needs to stay hydrated, get his fruit juice in, keep his system happy.
- The points in the paint defense is a huge problem. While Marc Gasol is certainly a part of this problem it also does not end there. The Lakers made a choice in the offseason, one I have never fully gotten behind for reasons that become more obvious as the season winds along. We pretty much completely ditched the formula for regular season success on defense we used to earn the best record in the Western conference and went with what worked for 2 and half playoff series in the Bubble. We moved away from a drop coverage defense to a more energetic, thus tiring, man defense. We either chose not to retain or let slip away stellar on-ball defender Avery Bradley (who has subsequently been dealing with a balky leg so call that one even), Dwight Howard (who is essentially reprising his role from last season with Philly) and JaVale McGee (same in Cleveland). Instead we signed energy and more prolific scorers in Schroder and Harrell. We also ended up with Marc Gasol as our 7 foot consultation prize. I would have preferred to sign Howard over Gasol, I said it early, I’ve said it since and I’m going to keep right on saying it. The fact of the matter is what works in the regular season doesn’t always work in the playoffs. The same is true for what works in the playoffs not necessarily being the best recipe for success in the regular season. Especially one as compacted as this one is. The energy this defense requires is not doing LeBron any favors. Furthermore, with Markieff struggling to make an impact on any end of the basketball court consistently the linchpin of that defense usually sits when we need it (and him) the most. Finally, without AD that scheme is borderline unworkable with the players left on the roster. By going all in one type of defense we have left ourselves exposed to injuries, fatigue and reliant on personnel incapable of sustaining that level of defensive intensity for 72 games. Will it work in the playoffs? Maybe, depends on health and chemistry. Two fragile things in professional sport.
- Free throws and the myriad of issues we always seem to have from the stripe. Should the Lakers, especially the one with ‘James’ on the back of his jersey be shooting more free throws? Absolutely, yes. But we also have to make the ones we get , which we are not doing. We’re 24th in the Association in terms of team free throw percentage. We’re not the dominant paint scoring juggernaut we were last season, punishing teams with lobs, rebounds and put back dunks. We’re still a pretty good rebounding team but the guys finishing those rebounds aren’t getting up for dunks, they’re shooting contested layups, floaters and shots that are more skilled and thus unreliable. So, all of that being true, we need to be better as a team from the free throw line. Without AD our margin for error, even against teams we think should be easy, is very slim indeed (pro tip: it’s the NBA, no team is a pushover, these are pros who play with pride, they’re pretty good at basketball, they deserve focus, attention and respect).
- We’re playing the modern way, why do we keep losing? In the last few games we’ve upped our three point field goal attempts considerably, shot 44 and made 15 for a decent 34.1% last night, for instance. But, because we sieve points in the paint, we need to hit even more threes than it would seem this team is capable of. James and his tired legs are the biggest culprit here, he went 2-10 from deep and has been cool from deep for awhile now. Kuzma did his job (4-11) and every starter made at least one except Wes Matthews (0-3). I honestly don’t know what we can do to fix this outside of making a trade. The guys off the bench aren’t really considered knock down threats from three, they’re playing the right way and taking the open shot in the last 2 games and you can’t ask for more than that. Morris has fallen off considerably from distance and is approaching his career low in terms of % (currently at .309% for a career .343% shooter), Wes is down and shooting one of the worst %’s of his career, save for the season he only played 2 games due to the Achilles injury. Both those guys are being relied on to help open up the floor with the threat of the three ball. Hard to do when there isn’t really a threat worth worrying about. Caruso, while still sporting a healthy looking % has fallen off of late and KCP has been so up and down his season looks like an ugly NBA yo-yo. If we do make a move it really ought to be to bolster our paint D and improve our three point shooting. Bonus fault to our coaches for not creating an offense that generates smart looks, another culprit in a season-long problem.
- More THT. In 16 minutes THT was 3-4, 1-1 from three with a steal and 2 blocks. His 2 turnovers and 4 fouls are likely why he didn’t play more but at this point what do we have to lose? We’re already on severe losing streak, Wes and KCP are no-shows half the time and THT plays well with both AC and Schroder. He needs to be promoted and it can’t happen soon enough. We’re getting almost nothing from our off gourd on a nightly basis. KCP had a solid game last night, so maybe…hopefully…fingers crossed…he’s moved past his annual slow start or his ankle has turned a corner or whatever the case may be. We need a lot more from our starting 2 than we’ve gotten for a good chunk of the season. If not THT (which I get, lotta growing pains there) I say we go with LakerTom’s suggestion of starting Kuzma. While it weakens the bench it gives us our best five players on the floor (when healthy) to start the games. Kyle can hang with quicker dudes and brings a balanced skill set. Gotta try something, though. This ain’t working and I’m not sure it’ll get all that much better when Dennis comes back.
- Lakers making a move? We’re currently 3rd in the WC sitting a game up on Phoenix who has countered our 3 game losing streak with a three game wining streak. Assuming we don’t find a miracle cure to what ails this team (mainly missing two key cogs) against Utah we’ll be on a 4 game losing streak when Phoenix gets the Bulls. By the time we get Schroder back, assuming we get him back by Friday for Portland, we could be sitting in 4th place with Phoenix and possibly the Trailblazers just a game behind as well, depending on how their week goes (they have it a bit harder than Phoenix does, they face the Nuggets tonight). So, while Kuzma may have a point in the notion that seeding doesn’t matter, confidence and chemistry does. There are plenty of guys on this squad that didn’t win a ring last season and the boost from that has surely worn off this squad. This is the grind, the dog days of the regular season where trade tumors, the threat of being waived, the All Star break within sight but just out of reach all pile on to weigh you down. It shows on this Laker team. We don’t want to limp into the playoffs as the 6 or 7 seed, we certainly don’t want to have to play our way in (unlikely but depending on how long AD actually sits or effective he’ll be when he returns it’s viable outcome at this point). So we need to start by finding our energy and focus as a team and beating Utah and finish that up with another win on Friday when we (hopefully) welcome Schroder back. Winning will do wonders to clear the stank surrounding the Lakers right now. Then we need to get into the break and take mental vacation from the grind before we close out the regular season.
A lot of this will be resolved if we get Anthony Davis back solid and healthy. Some of it will improve just by getting Dennis Schroder back, as well. I’m not sure what moves Rob is planning but you can bet he’s seeing what we’re seeing and more. The one thing I know to be true is this: when we’re healthy I take the Lakers in a 7 game series over anyone in the NBA. It’s just that “healthy” caveat that is worrisome…
Go Lakers.
You completely said everything I needed to say, Jamie. I only want to add one more thing to the fiver. Why didn’t Trez play the fourth quarter and overtime? He has been one of the few bright spots last night when most of the team looked flat like a flat tire due fatigue.
Since AD went down with the injury and, later, Dennis’ absence, I kept asking myself why is Trez’s playing time limited when he always shows up every game. I put the blame on most of these recent losses on Vogel. Please ride the hot hand, coach.
I completely agree with all the five points you stated and what a way to hit the nail on the head!
Yep, hot hand!
I would imagine it had much to do with his 5 fouls. Frank also tends to roll into OT with whomever ended the 4th.
No, Frank said it was the size matchup. I think that was both a strategic and player management mistake. We could have doubled Lopez in deep and Trezz was owning him on offense. Dumb move by Vogel. Trezz kept us in the game and then gets benched for Marc, who allows those first 4 crucial points in OT.
I agree LT.
Thanks for the Fiver, Jamie.
1. You’re at least consistent with your continued fantasy that the Lakers should have kept JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard but the stats basically say you need glasses.
Here are the defensive ratings this season for the four centers in question:
—Montrezl Harrell 104.4 (6th)
—Marc Gasol 105.3 (8th)
—Dwight Howard 107.9 (25th)
—JaVale McGee 110.8 (41st)
As for the Lakers poor defense allowing too many opponent points in the paint, there’s no doubt that we’ve been more porous than normal. Like with 3-point shooting, however, it’s the differential that counts: how many points scored vs. allowed.
The Lakers did have a better PIP differential last year with McGee and Howard, but that could also be attributed to the missed game and subpar performance so far this season by Anthony Davis.
Here are the PIP differential stats from this and last season:
—Lakers PIP for this season: 51.8 (5th)
—Lakers opponent PIP for this season: 48.9 (24th)
—Lakers PIP Differential for this season: 2.9 points
—Lakers PIP for last season: 52.8 (6th)
—Lakers opponent PIP for last season: 45.8 (8th)
—Lakers PIP Differential for last season: 7.0 points
However, the story is quite different for the last 5 or 10 games, which is where you’re claiming we’re getting killed in opponent PIP. The reality is our PIP differential has been better the last 5 and 10 games than last season:
—Lakers PIP for last 5 games: 50.8 (9th)
—Lakers opponent PIP for last 5 games: 43.6 (6th)
—Lakers PIP Differential: 7.2 points
—Lakers PIP for last 10 games: 57.4 (1st)
—Lakers opponent PIP for last 10 games: 48.6 (19th)
—Lakers PIP Differential: 8.8 points
Just saying, it’s hard to separate out a bunch of bad plays and a couple of bad games from giving you a biased idea of the reality of our 3-point shooting and points in the paint. Often, the stats draw a more objective and balanced picture.
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2. Don’t disagree with you that we’re getting jobbed by the refs but the reality is we’re getting more attempts the last 5 and 10 games than for this or last season.
—Free Throw Attempts this season: 22.7 (9th)
—Free Throw Attempts last season: 24.3 (8th)
—Free Throw Attempts last 5 games: 26.2 (4th)
—Free Throw Attempts last 10 games: 27.2 (6th)
The different to me seemed to be LeBron so let’s look at his stats:
—LeBron James this season: 5.8 FTA
—LeBron James last season: 5.7 FTA
—LeBron James last 10 games: 5.5
—LeBron James last 5 games: 4.8 FTA
I think that’s where the eye test is matching the stats.
I also think the Lakers are allowing their frustration to get the better of them because opponents are getting more calls. Here’s those stats:
—Opponent FTA this season: 19.0 (2nd)
—Opponent FTA last season: 22.9 (14th)
Big part of Lakers improvement defensively this season has been less fouling.
—Opponent FTA last 10 games: 22.2 (17th)
—Opponent FTA last 5 games: 25.4 (30th)
Obviously, Lakers are getting killed and frustrated without AD last 5 games.
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3. You continue your ‘old school’ ranting about our playing the ‘modern’ way and losing because we took too 44 and 45 threes and “sieve points in the paint, totally ignoring that our opponents in both games were packing the paint and giving us open threes.
As we saw whenever LeBron or THT attacked the rim, there were always 3 or 4 defenders in the way. Sometimes, you must take what the defense gives you and, in this case, it was open threes.
And yes, we can do better. What we can do is simply run plays to get better quality shots, shoot in rhythm with confidence rather than hesitating, and finally, just shoot the league average of 37%. We have shooting coaches and the players should all be shooting a lot more threes in practice. There’s a correlation between the players like Dame who shoot over 100 threes a day in practice and those who make their shots in games.
Don’t forget, if we made one freaking more thee in each of these last two games, we would be on a 2-game winning streak as opposed to a 3-game losing streak. Yes, we can shoot better.
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4. More THT and start Kuzma. Finally, something we agree upon. The fact that teams are clogging the lane is great for Talen’s development as it forces him to be looking for his 3-point shot, which he doesn’t naturally do.
As for Kuz, he’s now taking 5.0 threes per game and hitting them at a 36.3% clip, has the 3rd best defensive rating at 102.9 behind Alex and LeBron, and is 3rd on the team in total and offensive rebounds.
Frankly, assuming we don’t make a major trade, I think the Lakers’ starting lineup for the playoffs should be as small ball lineup of Schroder, Kuzma, James, Davis, and Harrell. This is a lineup that has good all-around size with Kuz at the 2, can hit the boards hard, and has speed and length on defense. It’s way more mobile and athletic than the Gasol lineups.
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5. Will the Lakers make a big move or just add a couple of players off the waiver wire? I suspect they will and it could involve PJ Tucker for win defense and corner threes. Truth is our depth and talent beyond LeBron and AD doesn’t have huge upside.
I would love the Lakers to make a big move but they may not have the trading chips to do that in the end. I do think volume 3-point shooter would be great, a guy who can bust out and hit 7 or 8 threes very few games. Another rim protector? WCS or Noel? That would be great.
In the end, I think we trade depth for a third quasi all-star and we move Harrell into the starting lineup alongside AD. That may be the best we can do.
1) You’re ignoring the fact that both McGee and Howard (or a big of similar athleticism/skill) were lob finishers that led to us having the edge in paint point dominance last season. Defensively they altered more shots than either Gasol or Harrell is capable of. One way or another the numbers don’t lie: we “sieve” points in the paint
2) I was looking at the disparity between us and the teams we’ve been losing to. James, Kuzma, Harrell all should be shooting at least one more/game, IMO. Also, yes, frustration at many things has crept into the team and is causing issues on both ends.
3) I won’t be stopping any time soon, either. 🙂 And we didn’t make one more three, I’m not going to entertain revisionist thinking. Without better three point shooting you can expect the paint to be packed. When we shoot as terribly as we are it’s no wonder that is the shot that is available. The fix isn’t more of the same but to see better looks generated hopefully resulting in more makes. Like Stu Lantz says: “Let success be your guide.”
4) Don’t know about the playoffs, I’ll base that on match ups (as it should be). For the rest of this season and especially with AD being injured you can keep dreaming on Gasol coming off the bench. It simply will not be happening. The other thing on Gasol, I wasn’t too high on him coming here due to slowness of foot, lack of lift and general age/conditioning. Those have pretty much been proven to be accurate concerns. BUT, and it is indeed a big but, he is now on the team and unlikely to be waived/traded/benched so we need to better figure out how to utilize him. This is a point I’ve been harping on for a couple months now. If the only place he goes is to the space between the top of the arc to fee throw circle that is terrible coaching and strategy. It makes us one-dimensional, keys the defensive center to sag back towards the paint and we’re not going to generate smooth offense. I liked you idea of sticking him the corner. I would like to see him operate on the box a couple plays/game and look for drivers or kick outs. I would like to see him get the ball at the elbow out to the mid-arc of the three point line to change the look of the set, as well. We usually have 3 guys in stationary positions (or we see half hearted movement where one guy switches with another). That has to stop and the sooner the better. The offense is a mess regardless of who is on the floor these days.
5) I’m not sure what we’re planning to do but one assumes something is in the works since we waived Cook. Harrell and AD might happen in the playoffs. Might. No way in the regular season. The problem I see is, while we do have nice contracts that line up better salary-wise than we have in season’s past those guys are either vastly under-performing (KCP, Wes, Gasol) or are key cogs of what we’re doing now and going forward (Schroder, Kuzma, THT, AC). Feels like the equation is how much of the future are we willing to mortgage now in order to give us the best chance this season? I don’t have the answer, hope Rob does. The other thing is every contending team is looking for the same 3 things: better shooting, better defense and as cheaply as possible.
1. You’re ignoring the fact that both McGee and Howard (or a big of similar athleticism/skill) were lob finishers that led to us having the edge in paint point dominance last season.
Not true, I posted stats for PIP and opponent PIP. And pointed out the 7 point differential. Please take the time to read what I wrote before you reply.
I guess you also forgot to read that we’ve actually been doing better in PIP differential the last 5 and 10 games. Again, please read what I write before replying.
2. OK.
3. Bet we shoot over 40 threes tonight too.
4. Love to see THT and Morris get a start tonight. And Gasol sit his bum ass on the bench.
5. Be interesting to see if we make a big deal. I think it’s more possible than you do but it won’t be for a big. It’ll be for shooting.
Thanks for all the work you put into this thread!
Yeah, Dj. I agree, both Jaime and Tom put in a lot of work in this threads which gives us tons of balanced arguments.