5 Things: Here We Go

The Los Angeles Lakers 75th season begins on today, 10/22/2024. It’s Bronny James’ first season and Papa James’ 22nd. It’s Coach Reddick’s first year steering the team and he is the Lakers 29th head coach. I pick the Lakers to finish 7th in the Western Conference and 4th in the Pacific Division. I expect AD to win zero major awards despite his unique talents and skills. So it begins anew. A fresh, clean season!

1. Every new season in every sport is defined as much by optimism and hope as it is reality. For the Lakers hope comes in two forms: the health of their 2 superstars and the quick growth of Coach Reddick. Getting AD and LBJ through preseason healthy was, for me, a huge priority. Even with them playing in the vast majority of games last season we were only good for the Playin spots. So it stands to reason that, if they’re not available, we’re looking at a lottery placement. The integration and ascension of J.J. Redick as coach I expect to take more than just preseason. I’ve hard a lot of wonderful thoughts and ideas, read a lot of super interesting articles regarding those thoughts and ideas and it still leads me to a “now we’ll see” place. With a healthy AD and LeBron and some questionable health on down the line after them we were good enough to get to the 1st round of the playoffs under Darvin Ham who made a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals in his first season, a success that likely created an over-inflated opinion of what this roster is really capable of. After he was fired the Lakers went in a not-all-that unexpected direction by picking someone close to LeBron James…who had never coached anyone in his life other than 4th graders. Much has been made of his acumen as a player and a podcaster but, for my part, those are traits best suited for lead videographer on a staff, not the head coach. What I’ve seen on the floor has left a lot to be desired, so far. None of what’s happened really matters since A) He is the current coach, B) Our first option turned us down, C) The candidates after that were not guaranteed success stories in the making. Things working against JJ are the shorter preseason, the fact we had to travel to Milwaukee for one whole game, and that LeBron and AD both played significant roles in the Olympics. So I’m giving him the year to work this out better than I thought Coach Ham did. Here’s hoping.
2. Things I’m worried about. The defense and our rebounding. None of those have looked much better in preseason…but then again it’s preseason. Part of the problem is neither Reaves or DLo are organic glass crashers, they just don’t ball hunt off the shot very well. LeBron is old, doesn’t want to jump for a rebound and land on someone’s foot or worse. I get that. That basically leaves AD and Rui until Vando gets back or someone else off the bench distinguishes themselves as an active rebounder. On defense we have a similar issue in that Rui and DLo tend to lose focus on defense. Reaves competes but can be backed down with ease. LeBron is old and will put forth effort…when the moment demands it of him. That leaves AD until Vando gets back. Gabe has been OK, but I think he’s still under-sized and lacks the quickness he had as recently as his time in Miami. Not sure if it’s something he can get back with reps and playing more or if he’s aging out of the ball hawk role. Regardless, I haven’t loved our schemes, either. We’re awful in transition, we switch on screens too quickly rather than fighting which has a dual effect: we’re getting fewer fouls called on offensive players (which at a minimum helps et a tone and can help get key guys in foul trouble).
3. Things I’m not worried about. Scoring, in general. The shot profile in preseason can get tossed out the window because LeBron played zero 4th quarter minutes in preseason and AD played like 5 or so. LeBron also passed up a lot of shots he should take, which I expect he will once the games matter. Other than that everyone looked about the way they have for the last year and change. On the topic of three pointers DLo, Rui and Reaves are streaky, AD can take and make threes but we’re so much better off when he operates in and around the paint there’s no real need to stash him out there, and the guys off the bench are just plain inconsistent. There isn’t an number of threes I want to see us taking/game. They can be literally any number…as long as they are quality shot attempts. This is where the myth of the “green light” is easily exposed. I want all of our players to feel comfortable taking open (defender is more than 5 feet away from you) shots from everywhere. That is going to be a quality shot. Time winding down, 3 seconds or less on the clock, let it fly and so with confidence, there isn’t time for the play to evolve further. But if we just got the ball across the line and you call for a screen and jack it up because you’re feeling it or whatever, that my friends is a bad shot attempt. Even if it goes in, not what you want to see from pros. Work the ball into AD, let the defense collapse around him, move to your sweet zone and set you feet with hands in the ready position. You are now prepared to take a good shot. That’s what we need a lot more of. I still expect to see us dominate the paint, I’d like to see our shooters shoot smart threes, as many as can be generated, and if we accomplish that I don’t think we need to worry all that much about putting points on the board.
4. The rookies. Bronny and Dalton are the only two drafted but Quincy Olivari will find himself in the mix as quick as either of those two if he keeps bringing the hustle. All three have issues: Bronny can’t shoot, yet. Dalton has no lateral foot speed and gets blown by with ease. Quincy is raw but seems to be a blend of both Dalton and Bronny. I think Dalton can carve out a solid role for himself on this team, maybe even have some crunch time opportunities in actual games. But I’m not investing all that much in summer or preseason games. Some guys shine as brightly as the lights do, some guys wilt under that heat. All three will get tested this season and my hope is they can show the best versions of themselves when the moment comes. I am not expecting or hoping for much impact from any of them beyond that. Of the 3 Knecht likely has the most assured role off the bench, at this time.
5. Two Way Contracts 101. I keep seeing posts and articles that seem to insinuate that Koloko or Olivari can have a huge impact on the season. If they do, they’ll only have 50 games in the regular season to do so. Two Way players CANNOT play in the playoffs. In order for Koloko or Olivari to be playoff-eligible we’d have remove one of our standard contracts and not take a player back. For that reason along with the fact that we don’t have any non or partially guaranteed deals on the roster, I expect them to stay two-ways. Could something shake loose in a trade? I guess so but that would mean trading out more players than we bring back and even then we would also need to bring in a lot less money than we sent out in order to get them under the 2nd apron. All second apron penalties apply once you cross over, there is no grace period. Can they be feel good development stories? Absolutely. Will they transform our season and alter the trajectory of the franchise? In short, no.

Go Lakers.