So coach Darvin Ham wants to run through Anthony Davis, eh? That’s a nice thought and it sounds fun but what does it really mean and what would it possibly need to max out it’s effectiveness. The Lakers won a championship with LeBron dominating the ball as our defacto PG. Since moving away from that formula we’ve seen the Laker offense take several steps back and several good players shipped out in the name of the “less handling of the ball” for LeBron crusade. So what, if anything, has really changed to make this possible now?
- Anthony Davis PG? Let’s squish this notion quickly: AD is unlikely to be bringing the ball up the court and initiating the offense. More likely he’ll be one of the first players down the court trying to get his positioning settled against potentially smaller players before the defense has a chance to get set. That makes the most sense from both a basketball 101 standpoint and how Davis deploys his vast array of hooping skills. So, no I do not expect to see a lot more of AD bringing the ball up. He has a handle but it’s not elite and he’s not very fleet of foot, he has a quickness to him but I don’t consider him to be fast or speedy. We’ll want LeBron, Russ or Nunn bringing the ball up and starting possessions off.
- Anthony Davis three point marksman? This is likely going to be a point of contention. Is Anthony Davis good at shooting threes? Is that what you really want to see him doing a lot of in-game? His high point in three point field goal attempts was the banner-winning 2019-2020 season…the one with a three month break due to the COVID shut down. So, in some ways, it’s hard to take both that season and his follow up season as gospel. Look at his career numbers and it’s not all that encouraging: 10 seasons, .5 makes on 1.6 attempts for 30.% for his career. Career high in attempts (3.5) and makes (1.2) is the never-to-be-replicated 2019-2020 season. The season ended in March, there was a three month lag between that and some games ramping up to the playoffs and there wasn’t much travel in the playoffs where Davis shot 23 for 71, 32% which is a slight bump when pitted against his career numbers. His most efficient season shooting the three was his next to last in NOLA (and one of 2 seasons he played in 75 games where he made an even 34% of his treys. So, while I expect that the three pointer will always be a key aspect of Anthony’s game, I don’t expect to see him launching threes off the bounce or things like that. If he shoots threes at a clip of 5/game that’s likely too high as it drags him out of the paint, the area in which he is far more effective and efficient.
- Looking at AD’s shot chart and you’ll see three things: he shoots more accurately from the right side of the floor (makes sense as he organically squares up better from that side) in general, other than the corner three from the right side he’s fairly inaccurate from distance (especially from the left baseline to corner before the top of the key) and he is a beast in the paint. Does this mean a return to back-to-the-basket, bruising post play? Probably not as coach Ham has intimated that we’ll see something akin to Milwaukee’s 4 out set with someone in the dunker spot
Above are some fairly basic sets we can expect to see. Assuming that Davis slots in at the 4 that would have him starting half court possessions in his strongest three point shooting position, right-side corner three. From there he could float in for a lob or back door cuts, the ball could work itself to him where he needs to make better choices in terms of shot selection than the last 2 seasons (too many fadeaway mid range jumpers early in the shot clock and not smart shots, generally speaking). This spot puts him in his most accurate three point shooting area and helps keep him out of the paint where he tends to get injured on contact plays.
Here we see a few other ways coach Ham could use Davis, many of these start with AD in the baseline corner. Ad could also be used as a small ball five with James sliding over to the four. LeBron is also great at shooting from the right side (again, makes sense given his dominant hand) but he’s better from corner arc then AD is. Both are elite at scoring in the paint and at the rim.
4. Interior scoring focus. When I hear “we want to run the offense through AD” I don’t think clear out and let him go to work. I see plays that result in AD taking (and hopefully making) jumpers and scoring in the paint. It is by far his best ability and there are few that can guard him down low. He has size, enough strength and speed and a vast array of moves. I think we’ll see the Lakers look to regain a dominating trait of their banner winning season which was dominating the points in the paint stat on a nightly basis. Paint scoring creates more fouls than perimeter scoring, can help take an elite defender off the court through said fouls, and is the most effective shot in the game. Again, I’m not expecting back-down, drop-step, sweeping hooks to become the norm but I do expect to see us work the ball down low and give AD license to abuse his defender.
5. Anthony Davis point center? AD has never really established himself as a passing big man like The Big Spaniard did, he’s an elite defender, solid rebounder and great scorer but has never really earned the rep as a passing kind of player. He’s never averaged more than 3.9 dimes per game. To be fair, assists require someone else making a shot and Davis is generally one of the better options to take that shot especially when he’s playing with a passer like LeBron. But he needs to be better at making reads. His assist to turnover ratio is poor for a superstar player. Last season he averaged 3.1 assists but coughed it up 2.1 times. That needs to get better. Davis either needs to work on his passing accuracy and read/react skills or be more determined to score. So, while I don’t see AD becoming the lead distributor I do see him becoming our best finisher. After all, not everyone can be this guy:
Basically, I’m rather bored of this Laker off season. So all of this assumes Westbrook is on the roster. Because he still is. So, until that is not the case, I’m not assuming otherwise. With LeBron and Russ you have two elite assist men who can deliver the ball to Davis in his best spots. Coach Ham needs to maximize this aspect of the Lakers in the half court and figure out how to unleash our fast break, again. Davis can be the elite release valve we need in the half court. LeBron is an elite player on the break and Russ needs to figure out how to recapture some of that. If those things happen I think the Lakers will surprise a lot of people next season as currently constructed.
Great fiver, Jamie. We’ve heard this same story before every season since AD arrived. He’s looking great physically and seems primed to have a great season. The Lakers offense should run through him. But what does that really mean.
Ironically, I’m in the middle of writing my version of that same article so great minds think alike. Main difference is I’m assuming Russ is traded. Bottom line, I agree. AD is the Crux. We’re a long shot to win a championship this season but our only realistic shot is if Anthony Davis shows that he can play the entire season like he played in the bubble to win the championship. AD must show he is top-5 player.
The Lakers seem to have adopted the approach of revamping the entire roster every season. The result has been a dreadful lack of continuity and growth. And yes, we’ve also made moves each season to try and reduce LeBron’s workload by bringing in point guards, a move we’re looking to do again this summer. Schroeder didn’t work. Westbrook didn’t work. Who’s got next? Kyrie? Your question is spot on. What’s changed now to make AD work.
1. I agree we will see AD sprinting down the court, especially if he plays the three on defense, where he will be guarding players out to the 3-point line. In Ham’s offense, first player down the court takes the dunker spot. That’s going to be AD. Look for a lot of early long passes to AD, which is a Lakers staple that will work perfectly in Darvin Ham’s 4-out offense.
2. Anthony Davis, 3-point marksman. You’re right, the stats aren’t promising that AD can be a plus 3-point shooter. In fact, the bubble playoffs were the outlier to the rest of his career. As a Laker, AD has shot 33%, 26%, and 19% from three. And the best he’s ever shot is 34%. On the flip side, he did shoot 38.3% in the bubble while also shooting 60% on 2-point shots. He also is an 83% free throw shooter in the playoffs. So bottom line, the potential is there but AD is going to have to prove he can shoot a good percentage from deep. It will be key to his success. It was his outside shooting that was the difference maker in his game in the bubble.
3. AD’s shot chart. One of the things you must consider is how Darvin Ham’s 4-out offense works. First guy down the court takes the dunker spot. Next two take the corners, putting first three players down the court all on the baseline. The key players in this offense are the two players on the left and right wing. The Bucks switched from 5-out to 4-out to create more space for the two players at the top of the key, who were usually Giannis and Khris. For the Lakers, I expect most of the time that those two players will be LeBron and AD. While there will be matchups where the Lakers will work the ball into the post for AD, most of the time he will have the ball behind the arc on the wing with loads of space to face up his defender and beat him off the dribble to get into the paint for an easy shot or assist.
4. Interior scoring focus. Assuming we get the shooters we need by trading Russ and THT, we’ll see the Lakers take a lot more threes because that’s how Ham wants to play. We’ll also see lot of midrange jumpers by LeBron and AD and lots of dunks from having a big in the dunker spot. We need shooters to make this work so that Russ and THT trades are critical but I think we will see an offense much more like the Bucks than the last three years of Lakers. Depending on whom we trade for, we could be a big bully team or an undersized team. One way or another, AD is going to put up a lot more shots and score more points than any of his first three seasons with the Lakers.
5. AD as point center. I agree not his strength but something he is going to have to do better if he’s going to get the ball so much because teams will try to force him to pass unless they have a defender who can handle him on-no-one. Here is where the spacing of Ham’s 4-out offense is going to be critical. The space between defenders in the 4-out is greater than the 5-out because there are only two players not on the baseline compared to three not on the baseline with 5-out sets. That means it’s hard for defenders to help and further to go to double.
Thanks Tom, it’ll be interesting to see if/what moves Rob makes. I know you think a lot of this is all posturing and that both draft picks are all but ear-marked for trades but I’m not really so sure. At any rate, there hasn’t been any trade to date so since Russ and Kendrick are still on the team I’m not doing any kind of imagineering or stuff like that. Ham needs to work with what he’s got and so to do we. If that changes, so be it.
At any rate, as always, AD needs to play first and foremost. Any scheme involving him probably imagines that he’s not in street clothes. So his health and availability (as are all of our players) is a major key. His free throw shooting seems to come and go, which makes me think that’s as much an issue of focus and mental strength as his form and skill. I would say that 5 three point FGA/game would be the absolute ceiling. More of those just means we need elite rebounders to stop other teams from getting out on the break from us. I like him in the 3-4 range, which is his career average, and you see as well as I, he’s not an elite marksman from distance but he does do enough to keep his defender honest.
Since I don’t think Davis will be playing the three, especially since it pulls our best rebounder out of the rebounding area, I disagree with your notion of him being first out on the break. that’ll be James, Russ, Nunn, …THT…, and LW4. Guys who are truly fast or can get to spots at will through speed, strength and/or skill. I honestly don’t want AD playing defense on the perimeter, it takes away all of his strengths. Can he guard a smaller player on the perimeter? Sure, and we’ve seen Derek Fisher guard centers. Doesn’t make it a smart or good choice. Can and should are worlds apart. You want AD in or near the paint challenging shots at the rim, especially when you consider how much better at defense AD is than either Jones or Bryant. Even better when he’s at the as he is an elite help defender more than body up defender.
Since you keep bringing up trades that haven’t happened, I’ll bite. Don’t really see how we can trade THT and Russ, you’ll have to pick one. You could maybe get away with one draft pick in a trade for Talen but Russ, this summer, is going to take two to tango and once you do that you’re done. Pick swaps are cute but they are not driving forces in a trade, they can be the one thing that makes it feel like a “win” for one side or another when it’s really a lateral victory. “Oh, but we got a pick swap, OUR TEAM WON THE TRAD!!!!”. Russ at the deadline after the Lakers are on the book for the majority of his salary…different discussion. One gets it done mid-season, maybe even none for a team desperate enough at that time to unload salary (like Brooklyn could be if they try and shoehorn Durant into the season and it utterly blows up in their faces). Including THT with Russ just means more money for some team to pay taxes on. Not happening.
At any rate, I think the main thing about running the offense through Davis is him actually being on the court to do that. So here’s hopinh he plays in close to 82 games.
Nice Jamie, it is refreshing to have something other then rehashing the same trade proposals over and over. As for AD, I want to see him scoring inside as much as possible. With his skill set, that’s were he thrives. At times he is unstoppable. One just has to look at the 76er game last year, where he destroyed Embid a 3 time all nba defender, with points around the rim and short jumpers. If he proves he can become a plus 3 point shooter, great, you can adjust but the plan going into the season, trade or no trade has to feature AD inside, or you are totally wasting one of the very best interior scorers in the game today. I’m
Michael, I have the same thought on AD. He is way more effective inside than when he settles for those outside the paint shots. The exception being during the bubble year when he was a constant threat with his jump shot. But that abandoned him mysteriously afterward.
Now if he can replicate that midrange magic I will be more than happy to be his armor bearer.
But first, I want him to convince me he is going to be available for the full season. That may sound like an unrealistic demand but the Lakers are not going anywhere without AD and LeBron being healthy for the season.
Here’s hoping we will have a season filled with good health and cohesiveness.
We Lakers fans have been heartbroken this past two seasons and it’s all because of injuries which in turn affected our chemistry. It’s about time to rejoice and it all starts with AD and LeBron being healthy.
Thanks, Jamie. I think we both agree that AD is the key. He has to be healthy and the player we had in the bubble or we can’t win. And LeBron has to stay healthy and play great too. Oh, and we have to move Russ or we will be a play-in team.
I think the Lakers have multiple options to trade Russ and THT. If we trade with the Nets, I think it will be those two plus two picks for Kyrie and Joe. I think we can get Turner and Hield with one pick and one swap, leaving a pick to juice THT. Truth is both Russ and Talen need sweeteners.
We may have another month to wait. Hope we’ll all be pleased rather than disappointed when this is all over. I feel 40% Kyrie/40% Myles and Buddy/10% another Russ trade/10% we keep him but bench him.