5 Things: 24 games in

Usually do one of these a few games earlier but I wanted us to get through the roadie and have been busy. So there it is. At the beginning of the season I picked us to end up 8th in the western conference. So I’m personally not blown away at our record (8th in the west) but more concerned with how we got there. Issues with the bench and defense were predicted and have come to fruition and, across the board, I think it’s fair to say the Lakers have actually somehow managed to take a small, if correctable, step backwards this season.

1. The Offense. The hiring of coach Reddick was supposed to herald the L:akers arrival into the world of analytic basketball, revolutionize our offensive approach and embrace the modern era of the NBA. This season, at this time, we have 113.0 team offensive rating, good for 14th in the NBA. Last season, at the end of the year, we had 115.4 team offensive rating, good for 15th overall. We are taking more threes (33.3 this season vs. 31.4 in 2023-24) but we’re making fewer 34.2% this season vs. 37.7% last year). Our turnovers are down under Coach Reddick, incredibly, and free throws are about the same. The biggest change has been the regression of D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura in terms of overall FGA’s. This isn’t on the players, necessarily, although anyone can choose to be more aggressive at work. It’s also a byproduct of force-feeding AD FGA’s and the significant slowing down of the Lakers offense, in general. AD’s FGA’s are up by almost 2 per game (18.7 vs. 16.9 last season), LeBron’s are down by .2, but Rui is also down by .4 (despite an increase in minutes by game by 5.8) and DLO is down from 14.2 FGA’s/game to 10.9). Reaves has seen his attempts increase (13.2 up from 11.5) but his accuracy go down (44% down from 48.6%, 35.5% from three down from 36.7%) Consider this: last season under Coach Ham we were 4th in the NBA at Pace of Play at 101.38. This season under Coach Reddick we’re playing at a 98.66 Pace of Play. Pace is a measure of how many possessions a team uses/game. Due to several factors (mainly the entirety of my next point) the Lakers offense is more bogged down and working harder to score this season under Coach Reddick.
2. The Defense. It’s bad. Defense doesn’t just mean getting stops, it can also lead to more easy baskets, fewer second chance points and a lowering of overall scoring efficiency for the opposition. In all of those areas the Lakers have taken a very large step backwards. Defensive Rating (points allowed/100 possessions) is abysmal: we’re 26th at 117.0 (behind teams that are basically tanking like Brooklyn and the Trailblazers, that’s downright embarrassing) and the season prior we finished 17th at 114.8. Without comparing how it went last year anymore (it’s all better), this season we’re 25th (15.0 per game) in opponent second chance points, 27th in opponent fastbreak points (18.4 per game) and 26th in opponent points in the paint (52.2 per game). Points off turnovers is our most respectable defensive stat, thus far, and we’re only 10th (16.9 per game) there. Every one of those stats was better last season with roughly the same team. Unless this gets corrected there will be no banner aspirations and the front office would do itself a favor by making a form choice: win now or start building a team better suited to the theories and principals they hired the coach for. Even then, Coach Reddick has some serious philosophical issues to debate in regards to his approach to team defense. This isn’t all on the roster because we know without a doubt that this roster has better defensive potential than they’ve shown all season long. It has to start with the coach understanding that a “one scheme to rule them all” approach is inherently flawed. Any simplistic, one-dimensional approach to a professional sport is doomed from the start. You need a plan A, B, C, D, and E and each of those should come with a different look. I’m not even sure we have assigned roles on defense as more often than not a guy gets rubbed off a screen and his man has an open lane or jump shot. It’s plain to the casual fan that defense is not Coach Reddick’s strong suit and that is the biggest issue confronting the Lakers at this juncture of the season. it’s on he and the staff to figure out a better way forward with the players on hand. If the roster changes, so too do the plans. Good defense leads to easy offense, a lot of problems will solve themselves if we can get better than the lower 1/4 of the NBA on defense.
3. Health. The same guys are still hurt, for the most part. Vando? out until at least January. Wood? Out for an indefinite period of time. Reaves is hurt for the first time in over a year and has missed several games (4, I think?) in a row. Jalen-Hood Schifino? Perpetually out with various injuries befitting a much older player. Of all the walking wounded Gabe has turned the corner, seemingly, and has played mediocre, at best. His offense is a gaping hole and his defense doesn’t make up for it. Now that Hayes is out we rely on G-Leaguers to plug the holes in the dyke when AD sits. It’s not pretty and is one of the factors contributing to our defensive malaise. LBJ finally sat a game and the Lakers won…against the utterly tanking Blazers. I know we got a new head trainer, it just hasn’t helped.
4. The rookie head coach. I have to say, despite all of the above, I am mildly impressed with Coach Reddick in that he hasn’t utterly lost his shit. Other than one sideline meltdown early on he’s held his composure. This season more contact is being allowed than in season’s past and you can see it’s affecting many players and their willingness to drive into the defense. I never really bought into anyone who was saying things like “Reddick will revolutionize the Lakers approach to offense” and “he’s the next Pat Riley!” because that’s all just bullshit people post in the dog days because they’re bored or whatever. If that’s what helps get them to the regular season, great. It’s not a game I play, I don’t deal in hyperbolic superlatives. I deal in results. The fact is the Lakers, with this roster, didn’t have a tremendous ceiling to come up to. LeBron is LeBron, AD is AD and nothing coach says in the locker room or on TV is going to fundamentally change how they play and approach the game. Where he has failed a little bit is in elevating the rest of the team. This can still happen, though, as everything from the previous season is a measure of 82 games and we’re only 24 games in for the Lakers season, so far. Coach Reddick still has time to scrap the switch everything as the default, go-to defensive scheme and add in some zone, some midcourt traps, full and midcourt presses, and a hybrid man/switch scheme where the only switches happen onto shooters who are hot or guys they don’t want to see get hot. He can run plays for Rui and Russell. He can take the ball out of Reave’s hands a little more and give it to Gabe or DLO. There are a ton of un-tried adjustments on the table, thus there is still time for this group to simply execute better on both ends. Where we definitely need to up our game is our physicality. We started well enough but have gotten very, very soft after a hot start.
5. Trade our way to greatness. In short…don’t hold your breath. Let’s assume for a minute that Rob has access to every pick between now and 2030. I am of the opinion he does not but who knows. Most importantly we don’t have our 2025 1st rounder (aka as “The Cooper Flagg” draft), which is bound for Atlanta from New Orleans via the Murray trad thus completing the AD trade, at long last. Here’s the list, can’t trade picks more than 5 seasons out, this season ends in 2025, thus 2030 is the cap:
   
   2025 NBA Draft
   First round: Hawks have the rights to this pick from the Pelicans
   Second round: (2) Own plus one from the Clippers
   2026 NBA Draft
   First round: Own
   Second round: Headed to Miami
   2027 NBA Draft
   First round: LAL’ 2027 1st round pick to UTA protected for selections 1-4; if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then the LAL will instead convey their 2027 2nd round pick to UTA
   Second round: Own (see above)
   2028 NBA Draft
   First round: Own
   Second round: Orlando or Washington (all part of the Westbrook trade)
   2029 NBA Draft
   First round: Own
   Second round: Washington (last of the Westbrook trade)
   2030 NBA Draft
   First round: Own
   Second round: Own
   
   Here are the picks we CAN trade:
   2025 2nd round pick (LAL)
   2025 2nd round pick (LAC)
   2026 1st round pick – Pick Swaps Only
   2027 2nd round pick
   2028 1st round pick – Pick Swaps Only
   2029 1st round pick
   2030 1st round pick ***cannot trade both 2029 and 2030***
   
   Here’s Why:
   I’m sure we’re all vaguely familiar with the Stepien Rule in that we can’t trade 1st round picks in back-to-back seasons. So, because of the Westbrook deal and the AD deal we can’t trade our 2026 1st rounder until Draft Day in the summer of ’26. Depending on what happens in 2027 we could trade that one on draft day ’27, as well (it can’t be included as a pick swap, either, as we don’t own it outright so it’s actually Utah’s pick to trade until it becomes clear where it falls after the 2027 season concludes). So, for this season, the only 1st round picks we can trade outright at the moment are: 2029 and 2030 and we can’t trade them both. This is because we do not yet know what will happen to our 2027 1st round draft pick as it is protected 1-4. It will know it’s fate when the draft lottery happens…in the summer of 2027. As such, it is essentially holding our 2028 1st round draft pick hostage. Our picks we can include outright in trades are limited to: our 2029 first and 2030 first & second round draft picks, and the 1st rounders can’t both be included. We can trade pick swaps in 2026, ’28, ’29, and ’30. We have 3 second round draft picks because we won’t know the fate of the 2027 pick until…2027.
   
   The cupboard, as they say, is bare. We don’t have much in terms of impact players to trade, either. Lakers fans will be loathe to see Reaves or Knecht in any trade scenario but you can bet that any team the Lakers call will insist on one or the other, if not both, if the trade is for anything but another mediocre role-player. You can forget the “DLO, Rui, JHS, Max, and Gabe are perfect trade filler for Fox” type scenarios. That’s absurd; plain and simple, there is absolutely no way the Kings make that deal. Same goes for LaMelo, even if he sprains both ankles this season, again. If Atlanta hadn’t pulled out of their tail spin a couple weeks ago one could almost see the hope of a Trae Young deal. We will not be getting any picks back for doing the Bulls the favor of trading for Zach LaVine and trading for Lonzo Ball is beyond ludicrous, the dude can play…at max…16 minutes/game and no more than 4 minutes at a time. So any trade involving those kinds of scenarios I find simply laughable.
   
   To put it all simply and plainly: we don’t have the juice to use just filler players in a blockbuster trade, even if we go all-in. It’s not more than at least4 other teams can beat that have similar needs as ours and vested interest in not seeing us become elite, again. No team trading with us will be doing us any favors. Whether it’s a dislike of Rob, the Lakers in general, or both we will be looking at a slight overpay (or more) in any trade we make. These are the problems accrued by drafting poorly, using our exceptions on the wrong guys, and not including the coach on the Westbrook trade. These are the problems that are still reverberating through time, waiting for us in the future. With nothing to be done now.
   
   Go Lakers.