Lakerholics

Have the Basketball Gods finally given up on the Los Angeles Lakers or will they flip the script once again and unleash the hidden superstar in Austin Reaves to close out Houston and power LA to a miraculous upset of OKC?

We’ll hopefully find out tonight whether some harsh feelings over the way Game 4 ended and the long-awaited return of Austin Reaves give the Lakers the edge they need to close out the Rockets 4–1 in a gentlemen’s sweep. Understanding they’re just a miraculous finish in Game 3 from a 2–2 tie, the Lakers need to finish this series tonight even though it likely means Luka won’t be available for the start of the second round vs. the Thunder.

Best case for Lakers now appears to be Austin Reaves playing tonight and helping LeBron close out Houston in Round 1 and split first 2 games of Round 2 in OKC to give Luka Doncic more time to return for Game 3 in LA. Buoyed by their Game 4 blowout, the Rockets still believe they’re the better team and are determined to steal tonight’s game in LA, return to Houston to take Game 6, and then close out their 0–3 comeback in Game 7 in LA.

Meanwhile, the Lakers are looking for Reaves and the home crowed to fix their dismal 3-point shooting and huge turnover problems from Game 4 to to avoid a disastrous comeback and close out the heavily favored Rockets.
While losing Game 5 would certainly ramp up the risk of becoming the first NBA team to blow a 3–0 series lead, the Lakers cannot ignore the reality that a loss could give Luka a chance to be ready for Game 1 of Round 2.

For Austin Reaves, tonight is more than his first playoff game of the year. It’s his opportunity to prove last season’s poor playoffs were an outlier by producing like the All-Star and All-NBA player he was during the season.

Give Lakers’ second year head coach JJ Redick and his staff their flowers because they have found the blueprint to beat the younger, bigger, stronger, and more physical Houston Rockets in their first round playoff series.

The Lakers’ blueprint for beating the Rockets is to offensively optimize their shooting and playmaking advantages and defensively take advantage of Houston’s youth and lack of playoff experience and playmaking woes. Despite Houston taking 21 more shots per game, the two teams ended up making the same number of field goals for the 3 games but LA made 6 more threes and 15 more free throws for 10+ points more per game.

Right now, without Doncic and Reaves, the Lakers’ offense is 8th out of 16 playoff teams, their defense is 4th, and their net rating 6th. The Lakers and the Thunder are currently the only playoff teams who are undefeated.
Offensively, the Lakers shot a playoff-second-best 51.2% from the field and a playoff-best 46.1% from deep while defensively holding the Rockets to a playoff-worst 39.6% the field and playoff-second-worst 28.7% from deep.

Houston has shown why they were a heavy favorite heading into the series, posting a playoff-best 18.7 offensive rebounds in their first three games while forcing the Lakers into a playoff-worst coincidental 18.7 turnovers.
Unfortunately for the Rockets, the Lakers’ #2 field goal, #1 3-point shooting and #2 playmaking produced enough points and their #4 playoff defense was good enough to overcome negative offensive rebounds and turnovers.

Additionally, the Lakers have dramatically changed their style of play without Doncic and Reaves, replacing their Luka heliocentric iso offense with a quicker, less predictable, balanced offense that’s #2 in playoff assists.
Ime Udoka essentially called out his team and told them to grow up so it‘ll be interesting to see how hard the Rockets play in Game 4 on Sunday, when the Lakers will likely get Austin Reaves back and push hard for a sweep.

The Lakers plan to follow the same wnning blueprint tonight and outshoot and outassist the Rockets by enough points to survive whatever negative differentials they will suffer from offensive rebounding and turnovers.

After having their championship hopes estinguished by the Thunder three weeks ago, the Lakers have impressively rebounded and could lock up a 2nd round rematch with OKC with a 1st round win over Houston tonight.

The Lakers’ improbable turnaround after being throttled twice by the Thunder and losing Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves to injury has been nothing short of miraculous and a testament to JJ Redick’s coaching. After losing Doncic and Reaves, the Lakers led by LeBron James, Marcus Smart, and Luke Kennard have won 5 straight games — three regular season meaningless blowouts and two stunning playoff upsets over the Rockets.

If the Lakers beat the Rockets tonight, they will take a 3–0 lead that no team in the history of the NBA has been able to overcome. Complicating the situation, Durant reportedly is now questionable due to an ankle issue.
While everybody thought the Lakers were doomed when Doncic and Reaves went down, it now appears the basketball gods were just testing them. Having passed test, LA could now get their stars back for OKC.

While the Lakers path to another NBA championship is daunting, there’s a reason they play the games. Already, there’s already a possibility Jalen Williams will miss some of all of the 2nd round with a hamstring injury.
Parity and injuries could even derail the Thunder’s quest for back-to-back titles and the Lakers’ elite play sans Luka and Austin will only make them stronger and more confident should they meet OKC in the 2nd round.

But the Lakers first have to beat the Rockets. While the Lakers boast the #5 offense, #4 defense, and #3 net rating of the 16 playoff teams, the sample size is just two playoff games and all they’ve done is just hold home court.
Frankly, regardless of how LA does vs. OKC, beating Houston without their best two scorers/playmakers would likely mean Pelinka’s and Redick’s job’s were secure and LeBron James would be most likely be returning to LA.

The Lakers should not be looking to extend this series anymore. Tonight, they need to put their foot on the gas and go for the Rockets’ juglar. Win tonight and you lock up the series. Win tonight and rest for Thunder!

The Lakers sans Doncic and Reaves recorded their 3rd straight win vs. the Rockets sans Durant Saturday night in a 107–98 Game 1 victory where their undermanned offense sizzled and their underrated defense dominated.

Give GM Rob Pelinka and coach JJ Redick their flowers because this Lakers team continues to prove they’re grossly underrated and underappreciated. Every single player on this roster has bought in 100% on Redick’s vision. We’re seeing a Los Angeles Lakers team with championship culture that’s in championship condition, has developed championship habits, and wins on the court because of championship communication and chemistry.

All season long, Redick has had the Lakers winning despite their Big Three of Doncic, Reaves, and James missing more than 70 combined games and finishing with a 53–29 record and the #4 seed in the Western Conference.
Embracing their ‘Next Man Up’ mentality and ‘Playing harder’ cheat code, the Lakers peaked over the last 24 games, going 19–5 along with the 11th best team offense, 9th best team defense, and 8th best team net rating.

Offensively, the Lakers adapted to missing Doncic and Reaves and their 56 points, 12 rebounds, and 15 assists per game lost. Their answer as a team was to dish out 29 assists and shoot 61% from the field and 53% from three.
Defensively, the Lakers took full advantage of Durant’s absence and held the Rockets’ offense to just 19 and 18 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and their overall shooting to a dreadful 38% from the field and 33% from deep.

By stealing Game 1, the undermanned Los Angeles Lakers have completely turned the tables on the favored Houston Rockets, who now realize they may be in for a dog fight even if they get Kevin Durant back for Game 2.

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Lakers’ Offense Dominates Rocket’s Defense

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While everyone expected the Lakers to struggle mightily without their two top scorers and playmakers Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, the Lakers surprised the basketball world with a juggernaut offensive performance.

Without Luka and Austin, LeBron simply took control of the game from the opening tip, powering the Lakers to an early lead by dishing out 8 assists in the first quarter and 10 in a first half close only because of LA turnovers.
Led by James’ playmaking, Ayton’s scoring at center, and Kennard’s lethal 3-point shooting, the Lakers built a winning 10-point lead in the 3rd quarter and would have had a better offensive rating than 113.8 if not for turnovers.

Kennard led the Lakers with 27 points, followed by James and Ayton with 19 points, Smart with 15 points, and Hachimura with 14 points. Other than Bronny’s 5 minutes, Redick went with a tight 8-man rotation for the game.
The Lakers entered Game 1 believing they needed to limit turnovers to win. Ironically, they ran their offense so efficiently, shooting 61% from the field and 53% from three, that their 20 turnovers ultimately did not matter.

Other than the 20 turnovers, which Redick will need to adddress for Game 2, the Lakers played a near-perfect game on offense despite missing their two best scorers and playmakers in Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.
The skeptics will want more before giving the Lakers their flowers but LA’s smooth overnight transition from a predictable Luka Doncic heliocentric juggernaut to a LeBron James equal opportunity powered juggernaut.

The championship culture Redick has built allowed the Lakers sans Doncic and Reaves to beat the Rockets sans Durant in Game 1 of the First Round of the NBA Playoffs. To win Game 2, the Lakers will need to reduce turnovers.

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Lakers’ Defense Shuts Down Rocket’s Offense

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The Los Angeles Lakers’ elite defense quickly adjusted to Kevin Durant not playing and summarily shut down the Houston Rockets’ offense, holding them to just 98 points total and 38% from the field and 33% from three.

With Durant out, the Lakers had to quickly shift their defensive strategy from doubling superstar Kevin Durant to defending an equal opportunity lineup the Rockets were likely to play featuring center Alperen Sengun.
The Lakers’ physical interior and perimeter defense shut Houston down, limiting Sengun to 19 points on 19 shots, Sheppard to 17 points on 20 shots, Smith Jr. to 16 points on 14 shots, and Thompson 17 points on the 18 shots.

The Lakers posted an elite 104.3 defensive rating for Game 1 with 5 of the team’s 8 rotation players boasting individual defensive ratings under 105.0. LA’s all-out defensive effort last night was probably their best of the year. The Lakers’ defense was fierce and physical. James led the way with 2 steals and 1 block, Hachimura had 3 steals and 2 blocks, LaRavia had 1 steal and 1 block, Smart had 2 blocks, and Ayton and Hayes each had 1 block,

Like their offense approached Game 1 wrongly thinking they had to limit turnovers to win, the Lakers’ defense went into yesterday’s game thinking they must stop the Rockets’ league leading offensive rebounding to win.
Fortunately, the Lakers’ defense was so elite they were able to withstand the Rockets’ 21 offensive rebounds just like their offense was a juggernaut that they could win despite turning the ball over 20 times for 24 points.

The Lakers’ maligned and disrespected defense had their best performance of the year in their most important game of the year. The Game 1 win guarantees LA will play a Game 5, which is when Doncic might return.

Even without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, the Lakers still possess the advantages that powered their dominating March back-to-back sweep of the Rockets — better defense, more made threes, more made free throws.

While the Lakers must limit turnovers and control defensive backboards, the formula to beat the Rockets is simply do what they did back in March when they swept back-to-back road games, winning 100–92 & 124–116. During that back-to-back 2-game sweep, the Lakers dominated the Rockets at both ends of the court. They posted a solid offensive rating of 118.5 and elite defensive rating of 111.2 for a dominant net rating of +7.3 points.

Defensively, the Lakers could even be better without Doncic and Reaves, who were never elite defensive players. The Lakers’ team defense should be slightly better with Vanderbilt and Kennard replacing Doncic and Reaves.
Offensively is where the LA will miss Doncic and Reaves, whose volume 3-point shooting and ability to draw fouls and free throws sets an impossibly high bar for James, Ayton, Smart, Kennard, and Hachimura to exceed.

Unfortunately, the pundits and oddsmakers have totally underestimated the Lakers. They’ve forgotten how good LeBron James is when in playoff mode and how ‘playing hard’ has become the Lakers’ secret ‘cheat code.’
While he’s unlikely at 41-years old to lead the Lakers to a championship without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, LeBron James does still have enough left in the tank to lead LA to upset Houston in the first round.

Let’s review the three major tactical advantages the Lakers must maintain without Doncic and Reaves to defeat the Rockets and extend the playoffs to second round — better defense, more threes, and more free throws.

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1. Better Defense

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Last month, the Lakers’ dramatically improved defense shut down Kevin Durant and Houston’s point-guard-less offense in back-to-back road wins. LA’s defense does not need Luka Doncic or Austin Reaves to do that again.

The Rockets’ greatest vulnerabilities are their lack of an elite playmaker and questionable half-court decision-making on offense. In the teams’ games last month, the Lakers’ relentless trapping of KD won both games.
The 100–92 victory was a defensive war where LA forced Houston into 24 turnovers and held KD to just 2 points in the 2nd half. The 124–116 win was more of a shootout where the Lakers ended up blocking 8 Rockets shots.

Other than depth, Vanderbilt and Kennard replacing Doncic and Reaves shouldn’t hurt LA’s defense. While Doncic, Reaves, and Kennard are not great defenders, Vanderbilt is an elite individual point-of-attack defender.
For the back-to-back games in March, the Lakers posted an elite defensive rating of 111.2 compared to the Rocket’s subpar defensive rating of 118.5. The Lakers net rating for the two wins was the difference: +7.3 points.

The Lakers generated a 112.4 defensive rating over their last 24 games, which was the 9th best in the league for that period. During the 2-game March stretch vs. Rockets, LA posted a similar 111.2 defensive rating.
The Lakers will definitely need to both minimize their turnovers to prevent fast break points by the Rockets’ offense and also push the ball in transition to counter an overly aggressive offensive rebounding attack by Houston.

While missing Luka and Austin will hurt the Lakers’ defensive depth, defense is the one advantage the Lakers have over the Rocket that will not be seriously affected by missing Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

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2. More Made Threes

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In March, the Lakers back-to-back sweep was powered by outshooting the Rockets from deep by 3.5 threes and 10.5 points per game. Doncic averaged 5.5 and Reaves 0.5 made threes of 11.5 made threes per game by LA.

The Lakers’ major challenge will be replacing Luka Doncic’s 5.5 made threes per game, which puts immense 3-point shooting pressure on LeBron James, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Luke Kennard, and Jake LaRavia.
The Lakers are going to need each of those 5 players to make 1 extra three than they would normally do to insure they can replace Doncic’s 5.5 made threes per game vs. Houston. That’s a challenging but not impossible task.

The Lakers might consider minutes for Dalton Knecht or Bronny James, who both went off and made 5 of 6 and 3 of 4 from deep respectively in the team’s final regular season 131–107 demolition of the hapless Utah Jazz.
Winning the 3-point battle against the Houston Rockets without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves will be challenging to say the least. The only way the Lakers can accomplish that is every Lakers player shoots lights out.

In the 3 games the Lakers just played without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves to end the regular season, the Lakers shot a sizzling 47.0% from deep, averaging 13.0 made threes and 27.7 attempted threes per game.
For 3 games, Hachimura made 2.3, James Jr. 2.0, Knecht 2.0, Smith Jr. 2.0, James 1.7, LaRavia 1.3, Kennard 1.0, and Smart 0.5 threes per game. Obviously, Lakers need more threes from James, Smart, and Kennard.

To beat the Rockets, the Lakers need LeBron James, Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Jake LaRavia, Nick Smith Jr., and Bronny James to replace the 6.0 threes per game Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves averaged.

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3. More Made Free Throws

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The other major offensive factor that powered the Lakers to sweep the Rockets in their back-to-back March series was made free throws, as the Lakers averaged 17.5 free throws made to just 13.0 for the Rockets.

The Lakers will also greatly miss Doncic and Reaves’ ability to draw fouls and make free throws. In the March back-to-back wins, Doncic averaged 6.5 and Reaves 5.0 for 11.5 of the 17.5 free throws the Lakers averaged.
The good news is that other than 2.5 free throws made per game by James and LaRavia, no other Laker shot free throws other than Ayton and Hayes, who both averaged just 0.5 free throws made per game for the 2 games.

Obviously, getting to the line is going to be a challence without Luka and Austin. LeBron James, Marcus Smart, and Deandre Ayton are the three Lakers left capable of drawing fouls and shooting volume free throws.
The Lakers are going to need the referees to call the fouls when LeBron, Marcus, Deandre get into the paint and get hacked attacking the rim. Hopefully, knowing the situation, the zebras will look to protect LeBron.

During the final 3 games the Lakers played without Luka and Austin to close out the regular season, LA saw their average free throws made per game drop from 20.4 per game season average to just 14.0 per game.
When you combine the loss of Doncic and Reaves with the traditional hesitancy to call fouls in the playoffs, winning the free throws made battle will obviously be the toughest of the three challenges facing the Lakers.

If the Lakers hope to win their first round matchup with the Rockets, they’re going to need LeBron James, Marcus Smart, and Deandre Ayton to generate 17 to 18 made free throws by relentlessly attack the rim.