Lakerholics

Down 1 game to 2 to the Wolves, the Lakers are already being forced to play their second ‘Must Win’ game in just their fourth playoff game tomorrow. Win and Lakers are back on track. Lose and everybody’s legacy crumbles.

Will Luka Doncic be over his stomach illness and ready to play Sunday? Will LeBron James be able to repeat his terrific performance after playing heavy minutes and carrying a heavy load during Friday night’s tough loss? What changes will the Lakers’ JJ Redick and the Timberwolves Chris Finch have for their opponents on Sunday? Will the Lakers bench Jaxson Hayes and go small ball or will the Wolves bench Gobert in favor of Naz Reid?

If Luka and LeBron can somehow will the Lakers to victory on Sunday, LA would not only tie the series at 2 games apiece but also regain home court advantage and be headed back to LA for 2 of the 3 games left in the series.
A win on Sunday would leave the Lakers perfectly positioned to make a deep playoff run, playing series vs. the Timberwolves, Rockets, Thunder, and likely Celtics while avoiding the Clippers, Nuggets, and Warriors.

But lose on Sunday and suddenly what looked like a possible Cinderella winning-the-big-prize ending for LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Rob Pelinka, JJ Redick, and the Lakers becomes an embarrassing first round exit.
But give credit to Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. They may be young and lack experience but they’ve also been the ones who’ve come through when the game was on the line, not the Lakers veterans.

Sunday’s game is a ‘Must Win’ game to save the Los Angeles Lakers’ season and the legacies of their superstars. Here are 5 changes JJ Redick can make to help win the Lakers win Game 4 and spark a deep championship run.

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1. PLAY SMALL BALL

The time’s come for JJ Redick to fully embrace small ball and analytics and start Dorian Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent in place of Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura to surround Luka, LeBron, and Austin with more shooting.

In 3 playoff games, the Lakers current starting lineup of Doncic, Reaves, Hachimura, James, and Hayes has an offensive rating of 87.8, defensive rating of 136.6, and net rating of -48.8. It’s LA’s 7th worst 5-man lineup.
In contrast, the 5-man lineup of Doncic, Vincent, Reaves, Finney-Smith, and James has an offensive rating of 186.7, a defensive rating of 75.0, and a net rating of +111.7, It’s the Lakers’ top rated 5-man lineup in the playoffs.

The Lakers cannot afford to play from behind in Game 4 like they did in Game 3. Playing from behind just takes too much out of a team. Getting off to a great start in Game 4 will be critical for the Lakers chances to win.

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2. SLOW GAME DOWN

The Lakers cannot beat the Wolves if they continue to making live ball turnovers that lead to easy fast break points. The Lakers 19 turnovers resulted in 28 Timberwolves points and was the main reason for losing.

Instead of leaking out trying to get out and run, the Lakers need to focus on securing the possession ending rebound and taking good care of the ball in transition so as not to cough up those live ball turnovers the are killers.
The Lakers need to understand that low-scoring games are to their benefit as the older and less athletic team whereas high-scoring games are likely more beneficial to the younger and more athletic Timberwolves players.

The Lakers want to run when the opportunity presents itself, which will usually be off a live ball turnover they create. Their first priority should be to slow the game down to avoid needless turnovers and control the pace.

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3. CUT DOWN ON FOULS

The Timberwolves are not only winning the physicality battle but have also prevented the Lakers from getting their usual advantage via made free throws. So far, the Lakers have shot 56 free throws to the Wolves 55.

The Wolves are counting on the refs not being able to call enough fouls to deter them if they are overly physical. The Lakers must be careful to keep their hands in like against SGA to cut down on free throws the Wolves get.
In a critical Game 4, the Lakers need every edge they can get. During the regular season, they received 23.2 FTA per game while their opponents only received 20.5 FTA per game, a differential of 2.7 points per game.

The Lakers want to slow the game down without junking it up and avoiding sending their opponents to the free throw line has be be a major objective during Game 4. The Lakers also need to make their free throws in Game 4.

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4. STOP TARGETING RUDY

Hopefully, Luka will be fully recovered from his illness and ready to go. Rather than pounding the ball looking to make Rudy look foolish, Luka needs to focus on getting into the offense and sharing the ball earlier.

Game 4 is a game where the Lakers will need the best of both of their superstars if they are going to win and regain home court advantage. Playing Luka off the court actually hurts the Lakers in the long run.
We need the Luka and LeBron to each post 30/10/10 games and Austin to bounce back with a 20/5/5 game. The focus by Luka and LeBron has to be to score as well as get their teammates going with easy baskets off assists.

This is the Lakers’ second ‘Must Win’ game out of four games and, win or lose, Game 5 will likely be an even more important ‘Must Win’ game. Lakers don’t have time to be fooling around trying to embarrass Rudy Gobert.

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5. SHOOT MORE THREES

The Lakers need to take and make more threes. At least 50 attempts per game. It’s the only way they can counter their lack of front court positional size compared to the Wolves’ Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid center rotation

The Lakers won the 3-point differential Friday night, making 17 of 40 vs. Wolves 13 of 36 threes. Unfortunately, they used so much energy coming back that they were unable to match the Wolves’ threes down the stretch.
Tomorrow, the Lakers need to surround Luka, LeBron, and Austin with 3-point shooters and focus on slowing the game down, running smart plays, freely sharing the ball, and finding and making wide-open 3-point shots.

The Lakers recorded 17 makes out of 40 takes from deep on Friday night. This Sunday, look for them to make 20 threes out of 50 attempts as they win Game 4 wire-to-wire to setup a return to Los Angeles for a killer Game 5.

When the dust has settled, JJ Redick and the Lakers may finally realize their shocking Game 1 blowout loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves was exactly what they needed to get them playing championship basketball.

The true test of character for players and teams is how do you react when you get punched in the face in the playoffs and dominated by a team you were projected to easily defeat in the first round in 5 or 6 games at most? The Timberwolves dominated the Lakers the same way L.A. dominated OKC. Just like the Thunder could not stop the Lakers’ barrage of threes, the Lakers were helpless as the Timberwolves rained threes upon them.

Ironically, after losing Game 1 of their 2020 first round playoff series vs. the Trailblazers, the Lakers bounced back with 4-straight wins to beat Portland 4–1 in a gentlemen’s sweep on their way to their 17th NBA championship. That’s exactly how the Lakers should respond to the Timberwolves Game 1 of this year’s first round series. They need to slap the insurgent Wolves hard and put them back in their proper place with 4 straight blowout wins.

Right now, the Lakers are the NBA’s version of a an old joke with a stale punch line. The Wolves were so dominant that they now have become the betting favorites to defeat the Lakers in their first round playoff series.
The Lakers were the only home playoff team to lose home court advantage on opening night. If they lose tonight, they would have to win 4 out of the next 5 games with 3 of them being in Minnesota. Lakers must win tonight.

We find out tonight if JJ Redick and the Los Angeles Lakers are for real. Two games into the playoffs and Lakers face a legitimate ‘Must Win’ game. That’s what parity and the changing of the guard have done to the NBA.

Redick’s surprise late-season gamble to transform the Lakers’ offense into a volume 3-point shooting juggernaut and their defense into a trapping and swarming small ball attack paid off big as L.A. won 50 games and #3 seed.

The dramatic changes allowed the Lakers to win 50 games, the #3 seed in the West, and what is generally considered to be a very favorable possible path to the NBA Finals, especially considering the West is so challenging. JJ’s timing was perfect. Luka transformed L.A.’s offense into a 3-point juggernaut while their LeBron-powered aggressive swarming, trapping small ball defense held 3 elite teams under 100 points to close the season.

Once the dust settled after their 8-game run, the Lakers had done the unthinkable and actually transformed themselves into a 3-point offensive juggernaut that was taking and making 5 more 3-point shots per game.
With a healthy, better conditioned Luka Doncic running the offense and a healthy, repurposed LeBron James choreographing their swarming small ball defense, the Lakers finished the regular season as a playoff nightmare.

Before their stretch run, the Lakers were making 0.6 fewer 3PM per game for a negative differential of -1.8 points per game. During the run, L.A. made 3.2 more 3PM per game for a positive differential of +9.6 points. Redick’s smart decision to go all-in on volume 3-point shooting and aggressive small ball defense was a recognition the only realistic way L.A. could win the NBA championship was to win the 3-point war with Boston.

Let’s look closer at the Lakers’ dramatic stretch run to lock up 50 wins and the #3 seed in the West and whether their juggernaut 3-point shooting and swarming rotating small ball defense will be sustainable in the playoffs.

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Lakers’ Offense Leads NBA in Made Threes Down Stretch

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The Lakers started their 8-game stretch run with a 44–29 record and #4 seed in the West but facing the league’s toughest closing schedule with critical pairs of games vs. the #1 OKC Thunder and #2 Houston Rockets.

The 2024–25 regular season had been a constant roller coaster for the Lakers as untimely injuries to James, Davis, and Doncic and trades for Finney-Smith and Doncic roiled their roster and disrupted their season.
Despite the changes and setbacks, Redick remained committed to fully modernizing the Lakers’ old school offense, embracing the 3-point era, and committing the team to taking and making a high volume of threes.

Over the Lakers’ next 8-games, L.A. went all-in on becoming the NBA’s hottest and most potent offensive juggernaut led by a dynamic playmaking and scoring Big Three of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves.
Before their stretch run, the Lakers offense was 14th (114.3), defense 14th (113.6), and net rating 14th (+0.7). During their stretch run, their offense was 1st in the NBA (124.6), defense 15th (114.4), and net rating 7th (+10.2).

During their 8-game stretch run, the Lakers raised their 3PM from 12.9 to 17.5 per game, their 3PA from 35.9 to 41.3 per game, and their 3P% from 36.0% to 41.4%, creating a positive +9.6 points 3-point shooting differential.
While a small sample size, the eye test confirmed advanced stats. Anybody watching could see Luka was creating waves of wide-open 3-point shots for the Lakers. L.A.’s +10.2 net rating was due to their 3-point differential.

The Lakers have the playmakers and dead-eye shooters to prove their sizzling 3-point shooting was not just a hot streak but a replicable outcome of the elite pacing and spacing they can sustain throughout the playoffs.

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Lakers’ Swarming Small Ball Defense Shuts Down Stars

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While it was the Lakers’ juggernaut 3-point shooting that propelled them to a 50-win season and #3 seed in the West, the Lakers also had opportunities to showcase their swarming small ball defense during their stretch run.

The first opponent the Lakers held under 100 points down the stretch was the #2 seed Houston Rockets, whom the Lakers beat 104–98, holding them defensively to 41.6% from the field and 31.3% from deep in a close game.
The Lakers held Rockets’ guards Jalen Green and Fred Van Fleet to single digits and Houston big men Alperen Sengun and Dillon Brooks to 16 and 14 points. The Lakers aggressive small ball team defense shut Rockets down.

The Lakers’ best defensive effort was their 126–99 stomping of the #1 seed Thunder in OKC, where the Lakers aggressive trapping small ball defense held the Thunder to just 43.3% from the field and just 32.4% from deep.
The Thunder’s loss was biggest of the season. The Lakers shut down OKC’s interior and perimeter offense and dominated them offensively, winning the 3-point war by 30 points and raising serious questions about OKC.

The third opponent the Lakers held below 100 points down the stretch was the Mavericks in Luka Doncic’s first return to Dallas after the big trade, where the Lakers proceeded to throttle AD and the Mavericks 112–97.
The Lakers not only had Luka’s back as he dominated the game, scoring 31 in the first half and 45 for the full game. They also shut down the Mavs’ offense and held Anthony Davis to just 13 points on 5 of 13 shooting.

Like with their offense, the Lakers have finally have their full defense available, including the 4 big wing defenders in Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Finney-Smith, and James, who are the fire that makes their defense run.

The Sunday and Tuesday mini-series in OKC between the superstar-driven Lakers and the deep young juggernaut Thunder promises to be a live sneak preview of a possible Western Conference Finals between the two teams.

With just five games left in the regular season, the Lakers face a daunting trial by fire that could catapult them up to #2 seed in the West if they win out or see them plummet into the Play-In if the lose 4 or 5 of the games. That 3 of their remaining 5 games include 2 road games against the #1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder and a home game against the #2 seed Houston Rockets only make the Lakers’ remaining games even more challenging.

Sunday afternoon’s first game of the mini-series should give us a first indication how the LeBron James and Luka Doncic led Lakers matchup with the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen William driven Thunder.
Statistically, the Thunder are a different tier of NBA teams than the Lakers. While the L.A. has had the #13 ranked offense and defense since trading for Luka Doncic on February 1, OKC had the #1 offense and defense.

Fortunately for L.A., the game is not played on paper and the Lakers and LeBron James have the firsthand experience and confidence you only get from actually winning championships, which the Thunder still do not.
The mini-series in OKC should be the two biggest games of the year for both teams and a fascinating sneak preview of what we might see if the Lakers and Thunder end up meeting in the Western Conference Finals.

So let’s review the Lakers-Thunder matchup, what each team’s advantages and disadvantages are, what each team must do to sweep the mini-series, and what the impact will be should the two teams meet in the playoffs

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WHY LAKERS SHOULD SWEEP TWO-GAME MINI-SERIES

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The 2 road games tomorrow and Tuesday night against the Thunder have unfortunately become ‘must win’ games for the Lakers, who are looking to hold the #3 seed in the West despite a tough 5-game closing schedule.

While the Lakers desperately need to win their last 5 games to hold the #3 seed, the 54-win Thunder no longer have a shot at 60 wins or any pressing motivation to beat the Lakers other than pride and getting a mental edge.
Despite the Lakers desperately needing to win and the Thunder not, OKC has been so dominant in the West throughout this season that they have been installed as close to 10-point favorites to win Saturday’s first game.

In a perfect world, the Lakers would prefer to keep their playoff plans close to the vest instead of having to go all-in late in the regular season to win two critical games against the Thunder with every weapon in their arsenal.
Instead, the Lakers need to come with a greater urgency than any other time this season. They need their Big Three of James, Doncic, and Reaves to have a juggernaut night and their key role players to have career games.

While the Thunder have maybe the deepest and most talented roster in the league, they have not actually experienced how to win championships the way that LeBron James has. They may very well still be a year away.
A healthy LeBron James and Luka Doncic will be an excellent challenge for the young, inexperienced Thunder to use as pre-playoff measuring stick. It will be interesting to see if JJ Redick can outcoach OKC’s Mark Daigneault.

In the end, the Lakers will count on the iconic basketball skills, IQ’s, experience, and leadership of their generational superstars LeBron James and Luka Doncic to overcome the young, playoff inexperienced Thunder.

If the Lakers want to legitimately compete for the NBA championship this season, rookie head coach JJ Redick needs to quickly figure out how to fix the Lakers’ broken offense and defense in time to excel in the playoffs.

Offensively, the Lakers were expected to be an immediate juggernaut with a starting Big Three of LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves. The challenge for the Lakers was supposed to be defensively, not offensively. During the two months from January 6 to March 6, half of which included Anthony Davis and half Luka Doncic, the Lakers posted a solid 116.4 OffRtg (#11), a league-best 109.3 DefRtg (#1), and a top-five +7.1 NetRtg (#5).

Then LeBron was injured against the Celtics on March 8th and the Lakers proceeded to lose 8 of their next 12 games before rebounding against the Grizzlies last night, going from 40–21 and 2nd in West to 45–29 and 4th.
During the last 13 games, which included 8 games LeBron James missed, 4 where he struggled, and the last one where he appeared to be himself, the Lakers posted 114.5 OffRtg (#16), 119.6 DefRtg (#21), and -5.1 NetRtg (#22).

The Lakers’ struggles at both ends during the 12 games where James was either out or struggling to come back raised questions whether the team’s two-month reign as the league’s #11 offense and #1 defense was a mirage.
Critics claimed the energy and effort the Lakers were making on defense was not sustainable and noted that, even with LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves, the Lakers were still just a middle-of-the-pack offense.

The big challenge facing Lakers’ rookie head coach JJ Redick right now is how to fix the team’s broken offense and defense. Here are the five major changes Redick must make for Lakers to steal the NBA championship.

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1. Get LeBron James 100% Healthy For Playoffs

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The most important change the Lakers will need to win in the playoffs is a healthy LeBron James. While players are never 100% after the grind of the regular season, L.A.’s offense and defense needs a healthy LeBron James

While the Lakers obviously struggled during the 8 games James missed and the 4 games where he was still trying to get into game condition, his play last night against the Grizzlies was hopefully a sign the King is almost back.
While LeBron’s points dropped, he’s kept his boards and assists during this stretch. Problem was shooting (3 of 24 from deep for 12.5%) and advanced stats, where he went from solid 113.4/107.6/+5.8 to poor 112.7/123.8/-11.1.

Redick had found the perfect formula for how to transform a Lakers’ starting lineup with Doncic, James, and Reaves into the NBA’s #11 offense and #1 defense by having LeBron replace AD as team defensive captain.
While the team’s schedule was brutal and they missed other players like Rui Hachimura, it was the injury to LeBron, who was making everything work, that derailed a dangerous Lakers’ juggernaut that nobody wanted to face.

That’s why the Lakers need to continue to prioritize playoff health over playoff seeding. They still have the second toughest remaining schedule in the NBA, with two more pairs of roster-breaking back-to-back games.
The Lakers need to ignore whatever seeding drama is going on in the Wild West and commit to making sure that LeBron James is as close to 100% as possible for the playoffs, even if it means resting him down the stretch.

While the Los Angeles Lakers do need to win enough games to stay out of the Play-In Tourney, LeBron James’ playoff health is far more important than the Western Conference playoff seed Los Angeles ends up winning.

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2. Optimize Minutes Luka & LeBron Play Together

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JJ Redick’s second most important change will be to optimize the minutes on the court together of two of the smartest and greatest iconic point guards in the history of the NBA in LeBron James and Luka Doncic.

In 26-year old Luka Doncic and 40-year old LeBron James, JJ has two of the smartest and greatest point guards to ever play the game of basketball and needs to decide when to play them together and when to stagger them.
That Doncic is literally a younger clone of the 40-year old James and both are at their best when ball dominant seems to call for staggering them to avoid redundancy and make sure one superstar is on court all the time.

But two factors are pushing JJ to play James and Doncic together. The first is the offense/defense balance JJ wants in every lineup. While they’re clones offensively, LeBron can be a legitimate superstar defensively.
The second factor is the one tantalizing play between LeBron James and Luka Doncic that Lakers’ coach JJ Redick has deliberately not shown yet: the potentially unstoppable Luke Doncic and LeBron James pick-and-roll.

While the sample size is statistically small, superstars LeBron James and Luka Doncic have played a total of 367 minutes in 15 regular season games during which they posted a 111.6 OffRtg, 114.1 DefRtg, and -2.5 NetRtg.
Redick clearly needs to figure out how to get the LeBron and Luka lineups to be the juggernauts they should. If that means not having one of them on the court all the time, the Lakers are lucky they can rely on Austin Reaves.

The Lakers need to optimize the minutes their best two players LeBron James and Luka Doncic play together even if it means relying on Austin Reaves to carry the load alone when the two superstars are on the bench.

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3. Limit Minutes Lakers’ Big Three Play Together

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Figuring out how to best deploy and take advantage of the Lakers’ Big Three of LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves is JJ Redick’s next most important move to get the Lakers playing like NBA champions.

Simply stated, there’s a strong argument that teams with three stars would be smart to prioritize having two of their three stars on the court together for 48 minutes of every game rather than playing all three stars together.
Playing three ball-dominant offense-first players on court together when there is only one basketball is not a formula for playing efficient offense or for building a balanced lineups that can defend as well as score the ball.

The big question after the Lakers’ blockbuster trade for Luka Doncic was whether a starting lineup with three elite offense-first players in Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves could win the championship.
JJ Redick’s major change to improve the Lakers’ starting lineup’s defense was to turn over running the offense to Luka Doncic so LeBron James would be free to replace Anthony Davis as the team’s defensive captain.

While the sample size is small, the Lakers’ Big Three of James, Doncic, and Reaves have so far played a total of 247 minutes in 13 regular season games during which they posted a 113.4 OffRtg, 119.4 DefRtg, and -6.1 NetRtg.
The Lakers would get better balance productivity by limiting minutes by the Big Three together and instead making sure LeBron and Luka, LeBron and Austin, or Luka and Austin are on court all 48 minutes of every game.

Redick would be smart to limit minutes on court together by the Lakers’ Big Three of LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves to the start of each half and prioritize having two of three stars on the court at all times.

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4. Convert Jemison & Koloko As Backup Center

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Size matters and the Lakers’ lack of a trusted backup center for Jaxson Hayes is one of their greatest vulnerabilities. The Lakers need to convert Trey Jemison’s and Christian Koloko’s two-way to standard contracts.

The lack of a proven backup center has been a major problem for the Lakers for several seasons. The decision to rescind the trade for Mark Williams left the Lakers seriously undermanned at the center position.
While Jaxson Hayes has stepped up to become one of the team’s best role players, the team has struggled whenever he has to go the bench to rest and Redick has been hesitant to utilize two-way centers Jemison and Koloko.

The result has been a mixed bag of weird small ball lineups with James, Vanderbilt, or Finney-Smith at the five that have struggled to win games or fans’ hearts at opposing teams dominate them in the post and off the glass.
The Laker would be smart to waive center Alex Len and shooting guard Shake Milton and sign two-way centers Trey Jemison and Christian Koloko to standard NBA contracts so they would become eligible for the playoffs.

Jemison and Koloko provide complete different but needed center skillsets. Trey Jemison is more of a traditional big body bruiser center who’s not afraid to bang with anybody or defend any teammate that’s being abused.
Christian Koloko, on the other hand, is more of a lob dunk threat like Jaxson Hayes. What he does bring to the table that Jemison does not is the ability to be a great lob dunk threat, especially playing with Luka Doncic.

The Lakers converted two-way guard Jordan Goodwin to a standard NBA contract so he’ll be eligible for the 2025 playoffs. They should do the same for Trey Jemison and Christian Koloko to add desperately needed size.

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5. Run More Plays & Less Freelancing On Offense

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One of the major challenges for NBA coaches with superstars like LeBron James and Luka Doncic on their roster is convincing the team to run more efficient set plays rather than just allowing the superstars to freelance.

NBA analysts following the Lakers believe Los Angeles scores more points per possession running set plays than allowing the team’s superstars to freelance, which often leads to isolation play and slower ball movement.
There’s no question there have been times when the Lakers offense seems to go into a funk where they just cannot generate a high percentage shot. Those are the times when it makes sense to have the team run a set play.

One of the benefits of Luka Doncic taking over control of the ball and the Lakers’ offense is we’re likely to see the team run more pick-and-roll plays and specific plays designed to get easy lob dunks and open 3-point shots.
With James focusing on playing more off the ball on offense and taking on the responsibility of replacing Anthony Davis as the Lakers’ defensive captain, look for Redick to increase the percentage of set plays to be run.

The NBA is a matchup league and teams not only need diverse players with the skill sets to match up against different opponents but also diverse play calls that can work against different types of defenses they will face.
Balancing running set plays specifically designed to work against specific’s opponents’ weaknesses with trusting the world’s greatest athletes to make the right read and right call in on-court chaos is often very difficult to do.

While the Laker have two of the best playmaking point guards in the history of the NBA in LeBron James and Luka Doncic, they’d be smart to run set plays involving all five players than letting their stars freelance.