Probably not a lot of folks predicted this as the match up to decide which two teams would vie to represent the western conference in the NBA finals. But here we are: Nuggets vs. Lakers. Not since Carmelo Anthony was suiting up for the Mile-High Denver squad has a Nuggets team progressed this far through the NBA playoffs. Not since Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol were starring for the Lakers have we played in a conference finals and not since we took the season all the way to game 7 against Boston have we brought home the cookie. Good stuff.
- Denver doesn’t want to stop playing basketball. They’ve been counted out in 2 series, 6 elimination games and they’re still breathing. Not only do the Denver Nuggets not want to stop playing hoops but the rest of planet Earth should stop counting the Nuggets out. That starts here. While I am tempted to revise my prediction for how this series will go (Lakers in 6) I think there are enough factors that tilt the series in our favor for me to still be comfortable with that call. Mainly it still comes down to our defense. I think we can force the Nuggets not named Jokic and Murray to beat us. I like those odds but I also have a healthy dose of respect for the work Mike Malone does and the talent of the Denver superstar duo.
- Lakers rust game. Mark it down now: we’re losing on Friday. We haven’t fared well at all in the opening game of any of our playoff series. While Denver will have come off a momentum-building, franchise-defining, NBA history-making back to back 7 game series in which they were down 3-1 in both the Lakers will have been off for nearly a week. We’re going to be out of rhythm, our rotations won’t be sharp, our jumpers will be off, in short…we’ll be rusty. While I’d love to be wrong on this one it might also, in an odd way, help us if we let Denver get over-confident. I’m kidding, it would be better to win game 1 and set a tone. But I’m calling losses in game 1 and game 3 before we figure the Nuggets out for good and put them away in 6.
- Stopping the Nuggets. The Nuggets and Lakers match up well. They both feature an elite scorer and play maker (Jamal Murray and LeBron James) and a talented big man who can do it all (Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic. The difference comes on the other end. James and Davis are also top notch defenders, Jokic and Murray are not. We need to make them work on defense. The Clippers with the minutes restriction and conditioning issues that affected Montrezl Harrell and the fact that Zubac just isn’t played enough (same issue he faced on the Lakers: talented big man just not talented enough, evidently…) never wore Jokic down and, despite having two elite defenders in Leonard and George, couldn’t corral Murray. The key to stopping Denver is to take the ball out of both Murray and Jokic’s hands. Force them into uncomfortable spots on the floor and you live with them scoring points but on lots more shots. Make the rest of the team beat you.
- Lakers starting five. You know it’s coming. 6,362 articles from LakerTom proclaiming that Markieff Morris should start, McGee and Howard should be benched and so on and so forth. Amazingly, I disagree. I think you need to punish Denver inside, beat Jokic down by making him bang with a big and save AD for the 5 in crunch time. Force Nikola to defend Howard and McGee in the post, maybe pick up some fouls on him and get him tired for the 4th. So you read it here first (and on this site probably only, lol) but we’ll see a lot more of Howard and McGee until we move on or that proves to be ineffective.
- The unheralded star of this series will be… Danny Green. I know, I can hear you groaning from here on the West side of LA. Skeptics of this aren’t off-base in any way shape or form: to put it simply Danny Green has disappointed as a Laker in regards to his contract, his on-court production and mostly his ability to hit the corner three reliably. But this series is primed for a third star to shine and Danny showed a lot of signs of life against the Rockets. He might have a rough game 1. But I’m going with Danny Green as my “Not LeBron or AD” Laker to rise to the occasion.
All in all, the prediction game is fun and all but let’s face it: we’re, at best, arm chair GMS, coaches and players. The pros are pros for a reason and this series is going to be a great test of the Laker team and coaches. Mike Malone isn’t a one-trick pony like Mike D’Antoni. Jamal Murry isn’t the prolific scorer James Harden is or the force of nature that is Russell Westbrook or the ridiculously clutch performer that is Damien Lillard but he’s got a little of all three of those dudes in his game and he plays without fear. Jokic is the best true center in the game today (I consider Anthony Davis a power forward because that’s what he considers himself to be and who am I to argue?) The Laker defense hasn’t had to contain a player with Jokic’s size, shooting and skill, yet.
Also, it was so nice to see that the Clippers choked. I am of the opinion that there are no ordained match ups, that one team or another doesn’t present more or less of a challenge just a different one. The team that wins a playoff series is the better team. So the Lakers are getting the other best team in the western conference, no matter what the pundits predicted, the fans wanted or the bookies predicted. This series could go Denver’s way if the Lakers aren’t focused and ready to compete at the highest level. Honestly, I’m kinda glad we didn’t get the “not battle for Los Angeles” that the Clippers/Lakers would have presented in the Bubble. Let’s save that one for next season when we’re back in arenas, there are fans in the seats and we;re the #1 seed and the Clippers are #8.
Go Lakers.
Good job, Jamie. Some things we agree upon and, naturally, some things we don’t.
1. Go, Nuggets! Definitely congrats to the Nuggets for what they’ve accomplished. I was rooting for them to beat the Chokers from Game 1 through Game 7. Watching Chokers implode was almost as good as a Lakers’ win.
2. Rust Game. No way. Lakers will come out and win Game 1 in a rout. Third time’s the charm. Lakers aren’t going to underestimate the Nuggets. They know they are wins away from their 17th NBA championship. Bron can smell the roses and GOAT and will be elevating his game to Playoff LeBron level.
3. Stopping Denver. Lakers in 5 games with a chance for a sweep. Nuggets are better than Blazers and Rockets but Lakers are playing at a level defensively that is near unbeatable. Playoffs are determined by two things: defense and superstars, both of which favor the Lakers.
4. While we’ll see some minutes for McGee and Howard, AD will be playing the five for over half of the time, especially when Jokic is on the floor. Howard and McGee will play primarily when Plumlee is in the game. If they play against Joker, he will dominate them.
And before you proclaim this is a series where we should start JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard, please look at the stats of who has played best at center against the Nuggets per Anthony Slater’s article for the Athletic quoted below:
“In the four regular-season games between these teams, Anthony Davis played 150 total minutes. Here’s the quick breakdown of the Lakers’ success within them.
Davis on the court with JaVale McGee: 52 minutes, Nuggets outscored the Lakers by 18
Davis on the court with Dwight Howard: 42 minutes, net zero
Davis on the court with neither: 56 minutes, Lakers outscored the Nuggets by 34.”
5. Unheralded star will not be Danny Green, although I think he will play well. My pick is Playoff Rondo, who will be important in allowing LeBron to attack offensively. He will be the third star the Lakers need.
6. Predictions. I was spot on with Lakers in 5 against the Blazers and Lakers in 5 against the Rockets, and I think I will be right again with Lakers in 5 against the Nuggets. Not really guessing. More like smart analysis.
7. Chokers losing is something we all can agree upon. Hope they all have a horrible and unhappy offseason. They put together a team without understanding what team chemistry is really about. An amazing choke job by Steve Ballmer, Jerry West, Doc Rivers, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Lou Williams, and on and on. Arrogant, presumptuous, pompous, and ultimately doomed.
Once again, Lakers in 5 with AD at center 2/3 of the time.
Thanks, Jamie. One thing for sure, we cannot count out the Nuggets after what they have been able to accomplish thus far. The question is, will they be able to sustain that effort and energy for another 7 game series, especially against the Lakers, with only 2 days rest after 2 consecutive game 7s? The answer is, their chances of doing it again are very slim, if not impossible.
What I like about this Lakers team as currently assembled is that they can play any style of basketball, be it small ball or with traditional centers. They have the luxury of digging deep into their arsenal and coming up with a counter strategy.
When it comes to the issue of rust, I agree with LakerTom. It’s not going to happen to the Lakers for a third time. The reason it happened in the last two series was because the Lakers were adjusting on the fly to new styles of basketball and learning how to play those styles consistently. The only spot I would expect to see rust is our center position as they have not played in the last two series. Other than that, the team looks sharp and cohesive.
As for the unheralded star, it would be interesting to see who carries the baton this time. We will see, but I like your take on this fiver.
Thanks guys!
@LT-I think Murray is going give Rondo fits. The Rockets are an easier team to defend. There’s 15 seconds of dribbling followed by a shot or drive and kick out for a three. That’s pretty much it. It’s predictable for the defense as you need to focus on denying T the rim and closing out.
The Nuggets use the whole flood@r, run Murray off screens, let Jokic pick teams apart from the high post on down to the baseline. Most of all they’re similar stylistically to the Lakers in that they don’t hate on the midrange game. While they prefer threes or scores at the rim they’ll take the open 20’ jumper. In the playoffs you need points where you can get them and poo-pooing where they come from can get you sent home.
It’s funny when you say ‘the Nuggets are better than the Rockets’ yet still think they could get swept. The multi-faceted attack of Denver will test the Lakers defensively in a way we have t been tested. They can switch styles, go big or small, have multiple guys that can get their own shot off the dribble and have better team 3 point shooting than we do, although it’s close. I actually think this series will be the toughest one yet. Hence my almost pushing my prediction to 7. LeBron and AD playing at a high and efficient level will be the key.
@buba-thanks dude! Looks like you and LT are in the same ‘Lakers take game 1’ boat and it’s certainly possible. I feel like this Laker team is like the Borg: they need to take a couple hits before they adapt. But once you give Frank, Rondo and LeBton some game film to learn from they start to take away your comfort plays.
100% agree on the tired kegs factoring in as the series goes on
Jamie,
Hope your camping trip is working out. Sorry for the trouble commenting. Think we have it fixed but the new firewall is going to hopefully stop the hacking.
I think Murray is going to give all the Lakers guards fits with his quickness. There may be times when we have to double him, which will require us to go small with Morris or Kuzma at the 4 to accelerate our rotations. Have to pick our poison with he and Joker.
I do think the Nuggets are a big step up over the Blazers and Rockets but I also think the Lakers have learned and improved a lot over the last two series. The Blazers or Rockets could not have taken down the Clippers, oops the Chokers. I have the Lakers in 5 but there’s a chance it could be 6 or 4 depending on Frank.
I think small ball is going to be the key to winning this series, even if Frank resists. The key is Denver has a stretch 4 in Millsap and a stretch 5 in Jokic. The Lakers cannot defend either of these players beyond the arc with McGee or Howard. They’ll either get a wide open three or straight line drive to the rim. They should be limited to playing against Plumlee.